Vistra Stock Volatility

VST
 Stock
  

USD 22.94  1.47  6.85%   

We consider Vistra Energy very steady. Vistra Energy Corp owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0012, which indicates the firm had 0.0012% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Vistra Energy Corp, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please validate Vistra Energy risk adjusted performance of (0.035053), and Coefficient Of Variation of (3,001) to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0023%.
  
Vistra Energy Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Vistra daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Vistra's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Vistra Energy volatility.

540 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Close to Average

540 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Vistra Energy can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Vistra Energy at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Vistra stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Vistra Energy's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving against Vistra Energy

-0.61BGTKBig TokenPairCorr

Vistra Energy Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Vistra Energy's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Vistra stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Vistra stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Vistra Energy's beta of 1.06 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Vistra Energy stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Vistra Energy Corp exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.59 and kurtosis of 0.78. However, we advise investors to further study Vistra Energy Corp technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Vistra Energy's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Vistra Energy's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Vistra Energy Corp Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Vistra Energy correlation with market (DOW)

Vistra Beta

    
  1.06  
Vistra standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  1.96  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Vistra Energy's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Vistra Energy's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in vistra stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Vistra Energy.

Using Vistra Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Vistra Energy grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Vistra Energy at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Vistra Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Vistra Energy's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Vistra Energy will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Vistra Energy's PUT expiring on 2022-10-21

   Profit   
Share
       Vistra Energy Price At Expiration  

Current Vistra Energy Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $35.0-0.92930.020872022-10-2113.3 - 13.711.5View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $30.0-0.88380.0359202022-10-218.2 - 8.86.62View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $28.0-0.9020.042102022-10-216.3 - 6.73.1View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $27.0-0.97480.02374282022-10-215.4 - 5.74.9View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $26.0-0.97190.03025782022-10-214.4 - 4.71.65View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $25.0-0.96780.041116022022-10-213.4 - 3.72.85View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $24.0-0.89030.09943522022-10-212.5 - 2.751.4View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $23.0-0.80590.16726462022-10-211.6 - 1.82.03View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $22.0-0.60260.22125252022-10-210.95 - 1.11.0View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $21.0-0.380.2114932022-10-210.45 - 0.650.5View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $20.0-0.21030.1438552022-10-210.2 - 0.450.25View
View All Vistra Energy Options

Vistra Energy Corp Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Vistra Energy stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Vistra Energy's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Vistra Energy's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Vistra Energy's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Vistra Energy's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Vistra Energy's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Vistra Energy's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Vistra Energy's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. The Median Price line plots median indexes of Vistra Energy Corp price series.
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Vistra Energy Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.0642 . This entails Vistra Energy Corp market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vistra Energy is expected to follow.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Vistra Energy or Utilities sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Vistra Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Vistra stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vistra Energy Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Vistra Energy's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how vistra stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Vistra Energy Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Vistra Energy Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Vistra Energy or Utilities sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Vistra Energy's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Vistra stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Vistra Energy is 85172.92. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 3.84 and standard deviation of 1.96. The mean deviation of Vistra Energy Corp is currently at 1.59. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.19
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.0095
β
Beta against DOW1.06
σ
Overall volatility
1.96
Ir
Information ratio -0.0065

Vistra Energy Stock Return Volatility

Vistra Energy historical daily return volatility represents how much of Vistra Energy stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm has volatility of 1.9603% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.2389% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Vistra Energy Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Vistra Energy or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Vistra Energy may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Vistra's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Vistra Energy and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Vistra Energy fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas. Vistra Energy operates under UtilitiesIndependent Power Producers classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 5060 people.

Vistra Energy Investment Opportunity

Vistra Energy Corp has a volatility of 1.96 and is 1.58 times more volatile than DOW. 17  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Vistra Energy. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Vistra Energy Corp is lower than 17 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Vistra Energy Corp to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Vistra Energy to be traded at $28.68 in 90 days.

Very weak diversification

The correlation between Vistra Energy Corp and DJI is 0.59 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Vistra Energy Corp and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Vistra Energy Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vistra Energy's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vistra Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Vistra Energy stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Vistra Energy Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Vistra Energy as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Vistra Energy's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Vistra Energy's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Vistra Energy Corp.
Also, please take a look at World Market Map. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Is Vistra Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vistra Energy. If investors know Vistra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vistra Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Vistra Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vistra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vistra Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vistra Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vistra Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vistra Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vistra Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vistra Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vistra Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.