Urban Stock Volatility

URBN
 Stock
  

USD 22.29  0.52  2.28%   

Urban Outfitters appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Urban Outfitters owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0513, which indicates the firm had 0.0513% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Urban Outfitters, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please review Urban Outfitters' Semi Deviation of 3.58, coefficient of variation of 2419.25, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0584 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
  
Urban Outfitters Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Urban daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Urban's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Urban Outfitters volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Not too volatile

Chance of Distress

Below Average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Urban Outfitters can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Urban Outfitters at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Urban stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Urban Outfitters' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Urban Outfitters

0.71RLRalph Lauren CorpPairCorr
0.68ROSTRoss Stores Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr

Urban Outfitters Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Urban Outfitters' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Urban stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Urban stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Urban Outfitters's beta of 1.5 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Urban Outfitters stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Urban Outfitters shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Urban Outfitters further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Urban Outfitters future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Urban Outfitters' stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Urban Outfitters' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Urban Outfitters Implied Volatility

Urban Outfitters' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Urban Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Urban Outfitters stock will not fluctuate a lot when Urban Outfitters' options are near their expiration.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Urban Outfitters Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Urban Outfitters correlation with market (DOW)

Urban Beta

    
  1.5  
Urban standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.92  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Urban Outfitters's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Urban Outfitters' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in urban stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Urban Outfitters.

Using Urban Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Urban Outfitters grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Urban Outfitters at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Urban Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Urban Outfitters' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Urban Outfitters will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Urban Outfitters' PUT expiring on 2022-08-19

   Profit   
Share
       Urban Outfitters Price At Expiration  

Current Urban Outfitters Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $25.0-0.93450.077812022-08-192.6 - 3.32.75View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $24.0-0.75820.142822022-08-191.7 - 2.35.14View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $23.0-0.66460.24222022-08-190.95 - 1.13.83View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $22.5-0.54080.268182022-08-190.6 - 0.850.7View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $22.0-0.40950.25151232022-08-190.4 - 0.550.6View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $21.0-0.18380.1722552022-08-190.15 - 0.250.16View
Put
2022-08-19 PUT at $20.0-0.11350.092120202022-08-190.0 - 0.20.12View
View All Urban Outfitters Options

Urban Outfitters Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Urban Outfitters stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Urban Outfitters' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Urban Outfitters' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Urban Outfitters' volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Urban Outfitters' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Urban Outfitters' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Urban Outfitters' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Urban Outfitters Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
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Urban Outfitters Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.501 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Urban Outfitters will likely underperform.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Urban Outfitters or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Urban Outfitters' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Urban stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0173, implying that it can generate a 0.0173 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Urban Outfitters' volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how urban stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives an Urban Outfitters Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Urban Outfitters Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Urban Outfitters or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Urban Outfitters' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Urban stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Urban Outfitters is 1950.24. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 15.37 and standard deviation of 3.92. The mean deviation of Urban Outfitters is currently at 2.89. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.25
α
Alpha over DOW
0.0173
β
Beta against DOW1.50
σ
Overall volatility
3.92
Ir
Information ratio 0.0158

Urban Outfitters Stock Return Volatility

Urban Outfitters historical daily return volatility represents how much of Urban Outfitters stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 3.9202% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.181% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Urban Outfitters Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Urban Outfitters or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Urban Outfitters may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Urban's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Urban Outfitters and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Urban Outfitters fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization2.4 B2.8 B
Urban Outfitters, Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The company was founded in 1970 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Urban Outfitters operates under Apparel Retail classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 9660 people.

Urban Outfitters Investment Opportunity

Urban Outfitters has a volatility of 3.92 and is 3.32 times more volatile than DOW. 34  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Urban Outfitters. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Urban Outfitters is lower than 34 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days.
Use Urban Outfitters to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of Urban Outfitters to be traded at $21.4 in 90 days. .

Very weak diversification

The correlation between Urban Outfitters and DJI is Very weak diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Urban Outfitters and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Urban Outfitters Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Urban Outfitters' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Urban Outfitters' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Urban Outfitters stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance0.0584
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.115
Mean Deviation2.97
Semi Deviation3.58
Downside Deviation3.83
Coefficient Of Variation2419.25
Standard Deviation4.06
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Urban Outfitters Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Urban Outfitters as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Urban Outfitters' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Urban Outfitters' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Urban Outfitters.
Also, please take a look at World Market Map. Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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When running Urban Outfitters price analysis, check to measure Urban Outfitters' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Urban Outfitters is operating at the current time. Most of Urban Outfitters' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Urban Outfitters' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Urban Outfitters' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Urban Outfitters to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.39
Market Capitalization
2.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.066
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Urban Outfitters value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.