United Stock Volatility

UNFI
 Stock
  

USD 46.72  1.27  2.79%   

We consider United Natural very steady. United Natural Foods owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0743, which indicates the firm had 0.0743% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for United Natural Foods, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please validate United Natural Coefficient Of Variation of 1994.45, risk adjusted performance of 0.0774, and Semi Deviation of 2.27 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%.
  
United Natural Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of United daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use United's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of United Natural volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as United Natural can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of United Natural at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase United stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of United Natural's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with United Natural

+0.82ANDEAndersonsPairCorr
+0.89CASYCaseys General StoresPairCorr
+0.9CHEFChefs WarehousePairCorr
+0.77HFFGHf Foods GroupPairCorr

United Natural Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

United Natural's beta coefficient measures the volatility of United stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents United stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, United Natural's beta of 0.93 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk United Natural stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
United Natural Foods currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.0 and Jensen Alpha of 0.01. However, we advise investors to further question United Natural Foods expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure United Natural's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact United Natural's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze United Natural Foods Demand Trend
Check current 90 days United Natural correlation with market (NYSE Composite)

United Beta

    
  0.93  
United standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  2.26  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by United Natural's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of United Natural's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in united stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in United Natural.

Using United Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on United Natural grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of United Natural at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of United Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge United Natural's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding United Natural will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

United Natural's PUT expiring on 2022-12-16

   Profit   
Share
       United Natural Price At Expiration  

Current United Natural Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $50.0-0.68290.0614322022-12-164.2 - 4.53.8View
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $45.0-0.3560.06327852022-12-161.5 - 1.551.53View
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $40.0-0.1190.03026062022-12-160.35 - 0.450.41View
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $35.0-0.03790.01032322022-12-160.0 - 0.20.13View
View All United Natural Options

United Natural Foods Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which United Natural stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with United Natural's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of United Natural's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of United Natural's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures United Natural's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict United Natural's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for United Natural's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on United Natural's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. The Median Price line plots median indexes of United Natural Foods price series.
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United Natural Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days United Natural has a beta of 0.9338 . This usually implies United Natural Foods market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, United Natural is expected to follow.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to United Natural or Food & Staples Retailing sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that United Natural's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a United stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0135, implying that it can generate a 0.0135 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
United Natural's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how united stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives an United Natural Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

United Natural Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to United Natural or Food & Staples Retailing sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that United Natural's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a United stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of United Natural is 1345.06. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 5.09 and standard deviation of 2.26. The mean deviation of United Natural Foods is currently at 1.67. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 1.48
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.0135
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.93
σ
Overall volatility
2.26
Ir
Information ratio 0.0031

United Natural Stock Return Volatility

United Natural historical daily return volatility represents how much of United Natural stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 2.2556% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 12.5075% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About United Natural Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of United Natural or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of United Natural may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to United's beta indicator, it measures the risk of United Natural and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of United Natural fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization1.3 B1.3 B

United Natural Investment Opportunity

NYSE Composite has a standard deviation of returns of 12.51 and is 5.54 times more volatile than United Natural Foods. 19  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than United Natural. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of United Natural Foods is lower than 19 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use United Natural Foods to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of United Natural to be traded at $56.06 in 90 days.

Poor diversification

The correlation between United Natural Foods and NYA is 0.61 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding United Natural Foods and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

United Natural Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of United Natural's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of United Natural stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

United Natural Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against United Natural as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. United Natural's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, United Natural's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to United Natural Foods.
Also, please take a look at World Market Map. Note that the United Natural Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other United Natural's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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When running United Natural Foods price analysis, check to measure United Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Natural is operating at the current time. Most of United Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Natural's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Natural. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.1) 
Market Capitalization
2.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.08
Return On Assets
0.0328
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of United Natural Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Natural value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.