Ulta Beauty Stock Volatility

ULTA
 Stock
  

USD 394.11  6.45  1.66%   

We consider Ulta Beauty very steady. Ulta Beauty owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0144, which indicates the firm had 0.0144% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ulta Beauty, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the company. Please validate Ulta Beauty coefficient of variation of (12,244), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.005597) to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.025%.
  
Ulta Beauty Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Ulta Beauty daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Ulta Beauty's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Ulta Beauty volatility.

720 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Very Small

720 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Ulta Beauty can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Ulta Beauty at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Ulta Beauty stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Ulta Beauty's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Ulta Beauty

+0.62GPCGenuine PartsPairCorr

Moving against Ulta Beauty

-0.72KEPKorea Electric PowerPairCorr
-0.68SKMSk Telecom CorpPairCorr
-0.53NCLTYNitori HoldingsPairCorr
-0.53TOYOFTOYOTA MOTOR CORPPairCorr
-0.52TMToyota Motor CorpPairCorr

Ulta Beauty Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Ulta Beauty's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Ulta Beauty stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Ulta Beauty stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Ulta Beauty's beta of 0.9 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Ulta Beauty stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Ulta Beauty exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.34 and kurtosis of 0.12. However, we advise investors to further study Ulta Beauty technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ulta Beauty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Ulta Beauty Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Ulta Beauty correlation with market (DOW)

Ulta Beauty Beta

    
  0.9  
Ulta Beauty standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  1.75  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Ulta Beauty's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Ulta Beauty's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in ulta beauty stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Ulta Beauty.

Using Ulta Beauty Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Ulta Beauty grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Ulta Beauty at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Ulta Beauty Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Ulta Beauty's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Ulta Beauty will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Ulta Beauty's PUT expiring on 2022-09-30

   Profit   
Share
       Ulta Beauty Price At Expiration  

Current Ulta Beauty Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $320.0-0.00525.0E-432022-09-300.0 - 0.90.05View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $325.0-0.00566.0E-432022-09-300.05 - 0.30.05View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $330.0-0.01040.001172022-09-300.05 - 0.90.1View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $335.0-0.01130.001222022-09-300.05 - 0.80.1View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $340.0-0.02530.0022172022-09-300.15 - 0.850.26View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $345.0-0.03070.0028122022-09-300.1 - 0.50.4View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $350.0-0.03840.0037662022-09-300.15 - 0.60.36View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $355.0-0.06120.0054182022-09-300.5 - 0.850.61View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $360.0-0.08160.0072412022-09-300.75 - 1.150.8View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $365.0-0.12090.0098112022-09-301.2 - 1.551.25View
Put
2022-09-30 PUT at $370.0-0.17140.01291152022-09-301.8 - 2.31.85View
View All Ulta Beauty Options

Ulta Beauty Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Ulta Beauty stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Ulta Beauty's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Ulta Beauty's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Ulta Beauty's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Ulta Beauty's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Ulta Beauty's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Ulta Beauty's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Ulta Beauty's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Ulta Beauty high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Ulta Beauty closing price as input.
.

Ulta Beauty Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ulta Beauty has a beta of 0.9018 . This usually implies Ulta Beauty market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ulta Beauty is expected to follow.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ulta Beauty or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ulta Beauty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ulta Beauty stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0427, implying that it can generate a 0.0427 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Ulta Beauty's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how ulta beauty stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives an Ulta Beauty Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Ulta Beauty Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ulta Beauty or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ulta Beauty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ulta Beauty stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Ulta Beauty is 6968.36. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 3.05 and standard deviation of 1.75. The mean deviation of Ulta Beauty is currently at 1.41. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.15
α
Alpha over DOW
0.0427
β
Beta against DOW0.90
σ
Overall volatility
1.75
Ir
Information ratio 0.0271

Ulta Beauty Stock Return Volatility

Ulta Beauty historical daily return volatility represents how much of Ulta Beauty stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 1.7451% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.1057% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Ulta Beauty Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Ulta Beauty or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Ulta Beauty may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Ulta Beauty's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Ulta Beauty and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Ulta Beauty fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The companys stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools professional hair products salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Ulta Beauty Investment Opportunity

Ulta Beauty has a volatility of 1.75 and is 1.58 times more volatile than DOW. 15  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Ulta Beauty. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Ulta Beauty is lower than 15 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Ulta Beauty to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Ulta Beauty to be traded at $433.52 in 90 days.

Very weak diversification

The correlation between Ulta Beauty and DJI is 0.56 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Ulta Beauty and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Ulta Beauty Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ulta Beauty's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ulta Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Ulta Beauty stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Ulta Beauty Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Ulta Beauty as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Ulta Beauty's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Ulta Beauty's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Ulta Beauty.
Also, please take a look at World Market Map. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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When running Ulta Beauty price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta Beauty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta Beauty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ulta Beauty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.