Trivago Stock Volatility

TRVG
 Stock
  

USD 1.34  0.06  4.69%   

Trivago NV ADR owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0167, which indicates the firm had -0.0167% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards measuring the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Trivago NV ADR exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to validate Trivago NV coefficient of variation of (2,314), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.05) to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
  
Trivago NV Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Trivago daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Trivago's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Trivago NV volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Moderately volatile

Chance of Distress

Below Average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closely
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Trivago NV can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Trivago NV at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Trivago stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Trivago NV's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Trivago NV

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+0.69METAMeta PlatformsPairCorr
+0.77PROSYProsus NV ADRPairCorr
+0.74PROSFProsus NV ClPairCorr
+0.78BIDUBaidu Inc ADR Buyout TrendPairCorr

Moving against Trivago NV

-0.83SSNLFSamsung ElecPairCorr

Trivago NV Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Trivago NV's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Trivago stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Trivago stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Trivago NV's beta of 0.51 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Trivago NV stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Trivago NV ADR exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.49 and kurtosis of 0.71. However, we advise investors to further study Trivago NV ADR technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Trivago NV's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Trivago NV's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Trivago NV ADR Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Trivago NV correlation with market (DOW)

Trivago Beta

    
  0.51  
Trivago standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.42  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Trivago NV's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Trivago NV's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in trivago stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Trivago NV.

Using Trivago Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Trivago NV grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Trivago NV at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Trivago Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Trivago NV's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Trivago NV will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Trivago NV's PUT expiring on 2022-12-16

   Profit   
Share
       Trivago NV Price At Expiration  

Trivago NV ADR Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Trivago NV stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Trivago NV's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Trivago NV's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Trivago NV's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Trivago NV's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Trivago NV's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Trivago NV's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Trivago NV's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. The Median Price line plots median indexes of Trivago NV ADR price series.
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Trivago NV Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Trivago NV has a beta of 0.5147 . This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Trivago NV average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Trivago NV ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Trivago NV or Communication Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Trivago NV's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Trivago stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Trivago NV ADR is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Trivago NV's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how trivago stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Trivago NV Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Trivago NV Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Trivago NV or Communication Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Trivago NV's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Trivago stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Trivago NV is -6004.92. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 11.71 and standard deviation of 3.42. The mean deviation of Trivago NV ADR is currently at 2.67. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.37
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.19
β
Beta against DOW0.51
σ
Overall volatility
3.42
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Trivago NV Stock Return Volatility

Trivago NV historical daily return volatility represents how much of Trivago NV stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 3.4215% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.3973% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Trivago NV Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Trivago NV or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Trivago NV may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Trivago's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Trivago NV and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Trivago NV fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
trivago N.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates a hotel and accommodation search platform in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Dsseldorf, Germany. trivago N.V. is a subsidiary of Expedia Lodging Partner Services Sarl. Trivago NV operates under Internet Content Information classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1247 people.

Trivago NV Investment Opportunity

Trivago NV ADR has a volatility of 3.42 and is 2.44 times more volatile than DOW. 29  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Trivago NV. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Trivago NV ADR is lower than 29 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Trivago NV ADR to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Trivago NV to be traded at $1.675 in 90 days.

Modest diversification

The correlation between Trivago NV ADR and DJI is 0.21 (i.e., Modest diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Trivago NV ADR and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Trivago NV Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Trivago NV's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trivago NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Trivago NV stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Trivago NV Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Trivago NV as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Trivago NV's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Trivago NV's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Trivago NV ADR.
Additionally, take a look at World Market Map. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Trivago NV ADR price analysis, check to measure Trivago NV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trivago NV is operating at the current time. Most of Trivago NV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trivago NV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trivago NV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trivago NV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Trivago NV's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trivago NV. If investors know Trivago will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trivago NV listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.97) 
Market Capitalization
484.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Return On Assets
0.049
Return On Equity
(0.20) 
The market value of Trivago NV ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trivago that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trivago NV's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trivago NV's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trivago NV's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trivago NV's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trivago NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Trivago NV value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trivago NV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.