JM Smucker Stock Volatility

SJM
 Stock
  

USD 140.65  1.38  0.97%   

We consider JM Smucker very steady. JM Smucker retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which attests that the entity had 0.13% of return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. Our outlook to determining the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for JM Smucker, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please check out JM Smucker Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.4664, standard deviation of 1.15, and Semi Deviation of 0.789 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%.
  
JM Smucker Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of JM Smucker daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use JM Smucker's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of JM Smucker volatility.

720 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

720 Days Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as JM Smucker can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of JM Smucker at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase JM Smucker stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of JM Smucker's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with JM Smucker

+0.75GISGeneral MillsPairCorr

Moving against JM Smucker

-0.75CIADYChina Mengniu DairyPairCorr
-0.67DANOYDanone ADRPairCorr
-0.62GPDNFGroupe DanonePairCorr

JM Smucker Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

JM Smucker's beta coefficient measures the volatility of JM Smucker stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents JM Smucker stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, JM Smucker's beta of 0.42 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk JM Smucker stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
JM Smucker has low volatility with Treynor Ratio of 0.46, Maximum Drawdown of 4.96 and kurtosis of -0.16. However, we advice all investors to further analyze JM Smucker to make certain all market information is desiminated and is consistent with the current expectations about JM Smucker upside potential. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure JM Smucker's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact JM Smucker's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze JM Smucker Demand Trend
Check current 90 days JM Smucker correlation with market (DOW)

JM Smucker Beta

    
  0.42  
JM Smucker standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  1.12  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by JM Smucker's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of JM Smucker's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in jm smucker stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in JM Smucker.

Using JM Smucker Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on JM Smucker grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of JM Smucker at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of JM Smucker Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge JM Smucker's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding JM Smucker will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

JM Smucker's PUT expiring on 2022-10-21

   Profit   
Share
       JM Smucker Price At Expiration  

Current JM Smucker Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $170.0-0.92120.008112022-10-2129.0 - 30.946.6View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $155.0-0.95750.011212022-10-2113.9 - 15.131.7View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $150.0-0.89950.025182022-10-219.0 - 10.48.8View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $145.0-0.6780.0409782022-10-215.7 - 6.65.69View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $140.0-0.46050.04154272022-10-213.3 - 3.74.08View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $135.0-0.2870.0316542022-10-211.75 - 2.22.05View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $130.0-0.16660.02092772022-10-210.95 - 1.351.1View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $125.0-0.0920.01282662022-10-210.5 - 0.650.5View
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $120.0-0.0550.00771912022-10-210.2 - 0.450.35View
View All JM Smucker Options

JM Smucker Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which JM Smucker stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with JM Smucker's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of JM Smucker's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of JM Smucker's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures JM Smucker's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict JM Smucker's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for JM Smucker's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on JM Smucker's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. JM Smucker Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
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JM Smucker Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon JM Smucker has a beta of 0.4163 . This usually implies as returns on the market go up, JM Smucker average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding JM Smucker will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to JM Smucker or Consumer Defensive sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that JM Smucker's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a JM Smucker stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.2102, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
JM Smucker's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how jm smucker stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a JM Smucker Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

JM Smucker Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to JM Smucker or Consumer Defensive sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that JM Smucker's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a JM Smucker stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of JM Smucker is 761.43. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.25 and standard deviation of 1.12. The mean deviation of JM Smucker is currently at 0.89. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.14
α
Alpha over DOW
0.21
β
Beta against DOW0.42
σ
Overall volatility
1.12
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

JM Smucker Stock Return Volatility

JM Smucker historical daily return volatility represents how much of JM Smucker stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company has volatility of 1.1166% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.1051% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About JM Smucker Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of JM Smucker or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of JM Smucker may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to JM Smucker's beta indicator, it measures the risk of JM Smucker and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of JM Smucker fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio. JM Smucker operates under Packaged Foods classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 6700 people.

JM Smucker Investment Opportunity

JM Smucker has a volatility of 1.12 and is 1.01 times more volatile than DOW. of all equities and portfolios are less risky than JM Smucker. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of JM Smucker is lower than 9 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use JM Smucker to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of JM Smucker to be traded at $137.84 in 90 days.

Very weak diversification

The correlation between JM Smucker and DJI is 0.41 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding JM Smucker and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

JM Smucker Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of JM Smucker's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JM Smucker's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of JM Smucker stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

JM Smucker Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against JM Smucker as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. JM Smucker's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, JM Smucker's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to JM Smucker.
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When running JM Smucker price analysis, check to measure JM Smucker's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JM Smucker is operating at the current time. Most of JM Smucker's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JM Smucker's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JM Smucker's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JM Smucker to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JM Smucker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JM Smucker. If investors know JM Smucker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JM Smucker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of JM Smucker is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JM Smucker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JM Smucker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JM Smucker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JM Smucker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JM Smucker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JM Smucker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JM Smucker value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JM Smucker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.