Natural Stock Volatility

NHTC -  USA Stock  

USD 7.32  0.11  1.53%

Natural Hlth Trd has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0107, which conveys that the firm had -0.0107% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Natural Hlth exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Natural Hlth Trd Mean Deviation of 1.41, risk adjusted performance of 0.0225, and Downside Deviation of 2.32 to check out the risk estimate we provide.

Natural Volatility 

 
Refresh
Natural Hlth Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Natural daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Natural's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Natural Hlth volatility.

390 Days Market Risk

Somewhat reliable

Chance of Distress

Very Low

390 Days Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Natural Hlth can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Natural Hlth at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Natural stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Natural Hlth's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Natural Hlth Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Natural Hlth's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Natural stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Natural stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Natural Hlth's beta of 0.29 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Natural Hlth stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Natural's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Natural Hlth returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natural Hlth will be expected to be smaller as well.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Natural Hlth Trd Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Natural Hlth correlation with market (DOW)

Natural Beta

    
  0.29  
Natural standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  1.93  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Natural Hlth's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Natural Hlth stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Natural Hlth stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Natural Hlth.

Natural Hlth Implied Volatility

    
  54.34  
Natural Hlth's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Hlth Trd stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Hlth's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Hlth stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Hlth's options are near their expiration.

Natural Hlth Trd Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Natural Hlth stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Natural Hlth's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Natural Hlth's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Natural Hlth's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Natural Hlth's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Natural Hlth's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Natural Hlth's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Natural Hlth Trd Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about average price price transform indicator.

Natural Hlth Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natural Hlth has a beta of 0.2867 . This indicates as returns on the market go up, Natural Hlth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natural Hlth Trd will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Hlth or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Hlth stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0492, implying that it can generate a 0.0492 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Natural Hlth's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Natural Hlth stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Natural Hlth Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Hlth or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Hlth stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Natural Hlth is -9349.18. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 3.73 and standard deviation of 1.93. The mean deviation of Natural Hlth Trd is currently at 1.45. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.83
α
Alpha over DOW
0.0492
β
Beta against DOW0.29
σ
Overall volatility
1.93
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Natural Hlth Stock Return Volatility

Natural Hlth historical daily return volatility represents how much Natural Hlth stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 1.9326% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 0.8517% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Natural Hlth Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Natural Hlth or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Natural Hlth may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Natural's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Natural Hlth and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Natural Hlth fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization65.4 M67.1 M
Natural Health Trends Corp., a direct-selling and e-commerce company, provides personal care, wellness, and lifestyle products under the NHT Global brand. Natural Health Trends Corp. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong. Natural Hlth is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.

Nearest Natural long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Natural Hlth's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Natural Hlth Trd. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Natural Hlthusing the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Natural Hlth Trd over a specific time period.
View All Natural options
2022-02-18 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Natural Hlth's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-02-18. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.3, and an ask price of $5.2. The implied volatility as of the 27th of January is 455.0088.
 Profit 
Share
      Natural Hlth Price At Expiration 

Natural Hlth Investment Opportunity

Natural Hlth Trd has a volatility of 1.93 and is 2.27 times more volatile than DOW. 16  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Natural Hlth. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Natural Hlth Trd is lower than 16 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Natural Hlth Trd to enhance returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Natural Hlth to be traded at $8.05 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Natural's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Natural Hlth returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natural Hlth will be expected to be smaller as well.

Average diversification

The correlation between Natural Hlth Trd and DJI is Average diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Natural Hlth Trd and DJI in the same portfolio assuming nothing else is changed.

Natural Hlth Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Natural Hlth's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Hlth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Natural Hlth stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance0.0225
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.1095
Mean Deviation1.41
Semi Deviation2.23
Downside Deviation2.32
Coefficient Of Variation4900.15
Standard Deviation1.89
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Natural Hlth Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
Salesforce vs. Natural Hlth
Vmware vs. Natural Hlth
Microsoft Corp vs. Natural Hlth
Ford vs. Natural Hlth
GM vs. Natural Hlth
Dividend Appreciation vs. Natural Hlth
Citigroup vs. Natural Hlth
Sentinelone Inc vs. Natural Hlth
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Natural Hlth as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Natural Hlth's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Natural Hlth's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Natural Hlth Trd.
Additionally, see Stocks Correlation. Note that the Natural Hlth Trd information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Hlth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis

When running Natural Hlth Trd price analysis, check to measure Natural Hlth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Hlth is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Hlth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Hlth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Hlth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Hlth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Is Natural Hlth's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Hlth. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Hlth listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Hlth Trd is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Hlth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Hlth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Hlth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Hlth's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Hlth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Hlth value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Hlth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.