Moleculin Stock Volatility

MBRX
 Stock
  

USD 1.53  0.06  4.08%   

Moleculin Biotech has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0815, which conveys that the firm had -0.0815% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Moleculin Biotech exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Moleculin Biotech CS mean deviation of 2.86, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.046495) to check out the risk estimate we provide.
  
Refresh
Moleculin Biotech Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Moleculin daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Moleculin's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Moleculin Biotech volatility.

390 Days Market Risk

Moderately volatile

Chance of Distress

Close to Average

390 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Moleculin Biotech can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Moleculin Biotech at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Moleculin stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Moleculin Biotech's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Moleculin Biotech

0.76AADIAadi BiosciencesPairCorr
0.95ABCMAbcam Plc ADRPairCorr

Moleculin Biotech Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Moleculin Biotech's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Moleculin stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Moleculin stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Moleculin Biotech's beta of 1.01 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Moleculin Biotech stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Moleculin's beta means in this case. Moleculin Biotech returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Moleculin Biotech Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Moleculin Biotech correlation with market (DOW)

Moleculin Beta

    
  1.01  
Moleculin standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.9  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Moleculin Biotech's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Moleculin Biotech stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Moleculin Biotech stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Moleculin Biotech.

Moleculin Biotech Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Moleculin Biotech stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Moleculin Biotech's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Moleculin Biotech's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Moleculin Biotech's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Moleculin Biotech's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Moleculin Biotech's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Moleculin Biotech's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Moleculin Biotech Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
.

Moleculin Biotech Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.0102 . This indicates Moleculin Biotech CS market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Moleculin Biotech or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Moleculin Biotech stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Moleculin stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0389, implying that it can generate a 0.0389 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Moleculin Biotech's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Moleculin Biotech stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Moleculin Biotech Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Moleculin Biotech or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Moleculin Biotech stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Moleculin stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Moleculin Biotech is -1226.93. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 15.22 and standard deviation of 3.9. The mean deviation of Moleculin Biotech CS is currently at 2.82. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.42
α
Alpha over DOW
0.0389
β
Beta against DOW1.01
σ
Overall volatility
3.90
Ir
Information ratio 0.0095

Moleculin Biotech Stock Return Volatility

Moleculin Biotech historical daily return volatility represents how much Moleculin Biotech stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 3.9014% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.4875% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Moleculin Biotech Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Moleculin Biotech or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Moleculin Biotech may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Moleculin's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Moleculin Biotech and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Moleculin Biotech fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization53.2 M51.1 M
Moleculin Biotech, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of drug candidates for the treatment of highly resistant tumors and viruses. Moleculin Biotech, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Moleculin Biotech operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 13 people.

Moleculin Biotech Investment Opportunity

Moleculin Biotech CS has a volatility of 3.9 and is 2.62 times more volatile than DOW. 33  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Moleculin Biotech. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Moleculin Biotech CS is lower than 33 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Moleculin Biotech CS to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Moleculin Biotech to be traded at $1.9125 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Moleculin's beta means in this case. Moleculin Biotech returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow.

Weak diversification

The correlation between Moleculin Biotech CS and DJI is Weak diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Moleculin Biotech CS and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Moleculin Biotech Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moleculin Biotech's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moleculin Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Moleculin Biotech stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance(0.046495)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.14)
Mean Deviation2.86
Coefficient Of Variation(2,686)
Standard Deviation3.89
Variance15.11
Information Ratio0.0095
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Moleculin Biotech Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
Dupont Denemours vs. Moleculin Biotech
Ollies Bargain vs. Moleculin Biotech
Cansino Biologics vs. Moleculin Biotech
Definitive Healthcare vs. Moleculin Biotech
China Life vs. Moleculin Biotech
Kimball Electrnc vs. Moleculin Biotech
Ultrashort MSCI vs. Moleculin Biotech
Visa vs. Moleculin Biotech
Citigroup vs. Moleculin Biotech
Otp Bank vs. Moleculin Biotech
Microsoft Corp vs. Moleculin Biotech
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Moleculin Biotech as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Moleculin Biotech's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Moleculin Biotech's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Moleculin Biotech CS.
Additionally, see Stocks Correlation. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Moleculin Stock analysis

When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
41.2 M
Return On Assets
-0.17
Return On Equity
-0.23
The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.