Harley Stock Volatility

HOG -  USA Stock  

USD 33.61  1.99  6.29%

Harley-Davidson holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0698, which attests that the entity had -0.0698% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards determining the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Harley-Davidson exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check out Harley Davidson risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to validate the risk estimate we provide.
  
Refresh
Harley Davidson Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Harley daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Harley's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Harley Davidson volatility.

720 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Below Average

720 Days Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Harley Davidson can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Harley Davidson at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Harley stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Harley Davidson's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Harley Davidson

0.85WGOWinnebago Industries Financial Report 22nd of June 2022 PairCorr
0.85THOThor Industries Financial Report 14th of June 2022 PairCorr
0.83LZBLa-Z-Boy Financial Report 21st of June 2022 PairCorr
0.83AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters Earnings Call  TodayPairCorr
0.79IPARInter ParfumsPairCorr
0.79ELFELF BeautyPairCorr

Moving against Harley Davidson

-0.59SFLShip Finance InternaPairCorr
-0.58NCNacco IndustriesPairCorr
-0.56ARAntero Resources CorpPairCorr
-0.54OXYOccidental Petroleum Corp Potential GrowthPairCorr
-0.51UTHRUnited TherapeuticPairCorr

Harley Davidson Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Harley Davidson's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Harley stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Harley stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Harley Davidson's beta of 1.9 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Harley Davidson stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Harley's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Harley-Davidson Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Harley Davidson correlation with market (DOW)

Harley Beta

    
  1.9  
Harley standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.53  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Harley Davidson's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Harley Davidson stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Harley Davidson stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Harley Davidson.

Harley Davidson Implied Volatility

    
  70.39  
Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley-Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.

Harley-Davidson Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Harley Davidson stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Harley Davidson's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Harley Davidson's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Harley Davidson's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Harley Davidson's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Harley Davidson's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Harley Davidson's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Harley-Davidson high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Harley Davidson closing price as input.
.

Harley Davidson Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.9016 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Harley Davidson or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Harley Davidson stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Harley stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Harley-Davidson is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Harley Davidson's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Harley Davidson stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Harley Davidson Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Harley Davidson or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Harley Davidson stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Harley stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Harley Davidson is -1433.6. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 12.49 and standard deviation of 3.53. The mean deviation of Harley-Davidson is currently at 2.69. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.35
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.1
β
Beta against DOW1.90
σ
Overall volatility
3.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Harley Davidson Stock Return Volatility

Harley Davidson historical daily return volatility represents how much Harley Davidson stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm has volatility of 3.5345% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.3289% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Harley Davidson Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Harley Davidson or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Harley Davidson may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Harley's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Harley Davidson and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Harley Davidson fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization5.8 B6.9 B
The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Harley Davidson operates under Recreational Vehicles classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 5800 people.

Nearest Harley long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Harley Davidson's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Harley-Davidson. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Harley Davidsonusing the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Harley-Davidson over a specific time period.
View All Harley options
2022-05-27 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Harley Davidson's common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2022-05-27. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $13.3, and an ask price of $14.2. The implied volatility as of the 26th of May is 411.8687.
 Profit 
Share
      Harley Davidson Price At Expiration 

Harley Davidson Investment Opportunity

Harley-Davidson has a volatility of 3.53 and is 2.65 times more volatile than DOW. 30  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Harley Davidson. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Harley-Davidson is lower than 30 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Harley-Davidson to enhance returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Harley Davidson to be traded at $42.01 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Harley's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform.

Poor diversification

The correlation between Harley-Davidson and DJI is Poor diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Harley-Davidson and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Harley Davidson Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harley Davidson's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harley Davidson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Harley Davidson stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance(0.08)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.11)
Mean Deviation2.62
Coefficient Of Variation(1,555)
Standard Deviation3.47
Variance12.02
Information Ratio(0.047274)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Harley Davidson Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
Meta Platforms vs. Harley Davidson
HITHINK ROYALFLUSH vs. Harley Davidson
BANK OF NINGBO vs. Harley Davidson
Citigroup vs. Harley Davidson
Vmware vs. Harley Davidson
LINGYI ITECH vs. Harley Davidson
Atlassian Cls vs. Harley Davidson
Salesforce vs. Harley Davidson
Ford vs. Harley Davidson
Visa vs. Harley Davidson
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Harley Davidson as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Harley Davidson's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Harley Davidson's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Harley-Davidson.
Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis

When running Harley-Davidson price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harley Davidson value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.