Shift4 Stock Volatility

FOUR
 Stock
  

USD 33.77  1.16  3.32%   

Shift4 Payments owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.16, which indicates the firm had -0.16% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards measuring the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Shift4 Payments exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to validate Shift4 Payments coefficient of variation of (574.86), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.24) to confirm the risk estimate we provide.
  
Refresh
Shift4 Payments Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Shift4 daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Shift4's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Shift4 Payments volatility.

180 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Above Average

180 Days Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trends
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Shift4 Payments can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Shift4 Payments at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Shift4 stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Shift4 Payments' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Shift4 Payments

0.71ACIWAci WorldwidePairCorr
0.88ADBEAdobe Systems Fiscal Year End 15th of December 2022 PairCorr
0.95AKAMAkamai TechnologiesPairCorr
0.83ALFAlfi IncPairCorr
0.85ALTRAltair EngineeringPairCorr
0.76APCXAPPTECH CORPPairCorr
0.71APPNAppian Corp ClPairCorr

Shift4 Payments Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Shift4 Payments' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Shift4 stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Shift4 stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Shift4 Payments's beta of 2.09 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Shift4 Payments stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Shift4's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Shift4 Payments will likely underperform.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Shift4 Payments Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Shift4 Payments correlation with market (DOW)

Shift4 Beta

    
  2.09  
Shift4 standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  5.04  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Shift4 Payments's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Shift4 Payments stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Shift4 Payments stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Shift4 Payments.

Shift4 Payments Implied Volatility

    
  98.91  
Shift4 Payments' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shift4 Payments stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shift4 Payments' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shift4 Payments stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shift4 Payments' options are near their expiration.

Shift4 Payments Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Shift4 Payments stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Shift4 Payments' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Shift4 Payments' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Shift4 Payments' volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Shift4 Payments' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Shift4 Payments' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Shift4 Payments' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Shift4 Payments Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
.

Shift4 Payments Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.0916 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shift4 Payments will likely underperform.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Shift4 Payments or Business Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Shift4 Payments stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Shift4 stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Shift4 Payments is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Shift4 Payments' volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Shift4 Payments stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Shift4 Payments Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Shift4 Payments or Business Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Shift4 Payments stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Shift4 stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Shift4 Payments is -627.85. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 25.42 and standard deviation of 5.04. The mean deviation of Shift4 Payments is currently at 4.01. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.42
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.46
β
Beta against DOW2.09
σ
Overall volatility
5.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Shift4 Payments Stock Return Volatility

Shift4 Payments historical daily return volatility represents how much Shift4 Payments stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The enterprise inherits 5.0415% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.4721% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Shift4 Payments Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Shift4 Payments or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Shift4 Payments may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Shift4's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Shift4 Payments and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Shift4 Payments fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization4.8 B4.8 B
Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides integrated payment processing and technology solutions in the United States. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Shift4 Payments operates under SoftwareInfrastructure classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 1732 people.

Shift4 Payments Investment Opportunity

Shift4 Payments has a volatility of 5.04 and is 3.43 times more volatile than DOW. 43  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Shift4 Payments. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Shift4 Payments is lower than 43 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Shift4 Payments to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of Shift4 Payments to be traded at $32.42 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Shift4's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Shift4 Payments will likely underperform.

Poor diversification

The correlation between Shift4 Payments and DJI is Poor diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Shift4 Payments and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Shift4 Payments Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shift4 Payments' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shift4 Payments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Shift4 Payments stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance(0.24)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.41)
Mean Deviation3.92
Coefficient Of Variation(574.86)
Standard Deviation4.93
Variance24.34
Information Ratio(0.14)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Shift4 Payments Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
Greenlight Cap vs. Shift4 Payments
Penn Natl vs. Shift4 Payments
Halliburton vs. Shift4 Payments
Erie Indemnity vs. Shift4 Payments
Freyr Battery vs. Shift4 Payments
Eastgroup Properties vs. Shift4 Payments
Occidental Petroleum vs. Shift4 Payments
GM vs. Shift4 Payments
Mandiant vs. Shift4 Payments
Purecycle Technologies vs. Shift4 Payments
Ezcorp vs. Shift4 Payments
Interactive Brokers vs. Shift4 Payments
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Shift4 Payments as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Shift4 Payments' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Shift4 Payments' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Shift4 Payments.
Please check Investing Opportunities. Note that the Shift4 Payments information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shift4 Payments' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Shift4 Stock analysis

When running Shift4 Payments price analysis, check to measure Shift4 Payments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shift4 Payments is operating at the current time. Most of Shift4 Payments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shift4 Payments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shift4 Payments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shift4 Payments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Fund Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Go
Is Shift4 Payments' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shift4 Payments. If investors know Shift4 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shift4 Payments listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
3.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.68
Return On Assets
8.0E-4
Return On Equity
-0.0749
The market value of Shift4 Payments is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shift4 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shift4 Payments' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shift4 Payments' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shift4 Payments' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shift4 Payments' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shift4 Payments' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shift4 Payments value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shift4 Payments' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.