Bank First Stock Volatility

BFC
 Stock
  

USD 76.72  0.91  1.20%   

We consider Bank First very steady. Bank First National secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0968, which signifies that the company had 0.0968% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Bank First National, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Bank First National Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0855, mean deviation of 0.9913, and Downside Deviation of 1.19 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%.
  
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Bank First Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Bank First daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Bank First's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Bank First volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Below Average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closely
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Bank First can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Bank First at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Bank First stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Bank First's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Bank First Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Bank First's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Bank First stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Bank First stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Bank First's beta of 0.55 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Bank First stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Bank First's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Bank First returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bank First will be expected to be smaller as well.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Bank First National Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Bank First correlation with market (DOW)

Bank First Beta

    
  0.55  
Bank First standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  1.3  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Bank First's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Bank First stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Bank First stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Bank First.

Bank First National Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Bank First stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Bank First's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Bank First's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Bank First's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Bank First's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Bank First's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Bank First's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Bank First National high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Bank First closing price as input.
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Bank First Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon Bank First has a beta of 0.5537 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bank First average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bank First National will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Bank First or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Bank First stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Bank First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.1743, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Bank First's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Bank First stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Bank First Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Bank First or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Bank First stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Bank First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Bank First is 1033.38. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.68 and standard deviation of 1.3. The mean deviation of Bank First National is currently at 0.99. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.42
α
Alpha over DOW
0.17
β
Beta against DOW0.55
σ
Overall volatility
1.30
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

Bank First Stock Return Volatility

Bank First historical daily return volatility represents how much Bank First stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company has volatility of 1.2977% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.449% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Bank First Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Bank First or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Bank First may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Bank First's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Bank First and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Bank First fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization551.1 M559 M
Bank First Corporation operates as a holding company for Bank First N.A. that provides consumer and commercial financial services to businesses, professionals, consumers, associations, individuals, and governmental authorities in Wisconsin. Bank First Corporation was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Manitowoc, Wisconsin. Bank First operates under BanksRegional classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 279 people.

Bank First Investment Opportunity

DOW has a standard deviation of returns of 1.45 and is 1.12 times more volatile than Bank First National. 11  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Bank First. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Bank First National is lower than 11 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Bank First National to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Bank First to be traded at $84.39 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Bank First's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Bank First returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bank First will be expected to be smaller as well.

Poor diversification

The correlation between Bank First National and DJI is Poor diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Bank First National and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Bank First Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank First's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank First's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Bank First stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance0.0855
Market Risk Adjusted Performance0.1332
Mean Deviation0.9913
Semi Deviation1.1
Downside Deviation1.19
Coefficient Of Variation1639.22
Standard Deviation1.28
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Bank First Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Bank First as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Bank First's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Bank First's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Bank First National.
Continue to Trending Equities. Note that the Bank First National information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bank First's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

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When running Bank First National price analysis, check to measure Bank First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank First is operating at the current time. Most of Bank First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bank First's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank First. If investors know Bank First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank First listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.1
Market Capitalization
577.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.044
Return On Assets
0.0153
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of Bank First National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank First's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank First's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank First's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank First's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank First's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bank First value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank First's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.