Axcella Stock Volatility

AXLA
 Stock
  

USD 1.71  0.22  11.40%   

Axcella Health secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0079, which signifies that the company had -0.0079% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Axcella Health exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Axcella Health mean deviation of 4.93, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0331 to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
  
Axcella Health Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Axcella daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Axcella's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Axcella Health volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Risky

Chance of Distress

Significantly High

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Almost neglects market trends
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Axcella Health can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Axcella Health at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Axcella stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Axcella Health's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Axcella Health Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Axcella Health's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Axcella stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Axcella stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Axcella Health's beta of 0.62 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Axcella Health stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Axcella Health is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Axcella Health independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Axcella Health volatility. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Axcella Health's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Axcella Health's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Axcella Health Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Axcella Health correlation with market (DOW)

Axcella Beta

    
  0.62  
Axcella standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  7.24  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Axcella Health's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Axcella Health's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in axcella stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Axcella Health.

Using Axcella Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Axcella Health grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Axcella Health at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Axcella Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Axcella Health's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Axcella Health will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Axcella Health's PUT expiring on 2022-10-21

   Profit   
Share
       Axcella Health Price At Expiration  

Current Axcella Health Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-10-21 PUT at $2.5-0.57330.325712022-10-210.5 - 1.60.75View
View All Axcella Health Options

Axcella Health Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Axcella Health stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Axcella Health's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Axcella Health's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Axcella Health's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Axcella Health's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Axcella Health's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Axcella Health's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Axcella Health's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. The Median Price line plots median indexes of Axcella Health price series.
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Axcella Health Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Axcella Health has a beta of 0.6225 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, Axcella Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Axcella Health will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Axcella Health or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Axcella Health's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Axcella stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.223, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Axcella Health's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how axcella stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives an Axcella Health Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Axcella Health Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Axcella Health or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Axcella Health's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Axcella stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Axcella Health is -12682.34. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 52.38 and standard deviation of 7.24. The mean deviation of Axcella Health is currently at 4.77. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.14
α
Alpha over DOW
0.22
β
Beta against DOW0.62
σ
Overall volatility
7.24
Ir
Information ratio 0.0368

Axcella Health Stock Return Volatility

Axcella Health historical daily return volatility represents how much of Axcella Health stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 7.2375% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.1533% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Axcella Health Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Axcella Health or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Axcella Health may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Axcella's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Axcella Health and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Axcella Health fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Axcella Health Inc. operates as a clinical stage biotechnology company in the United States. Axcella Health Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Axcella Health operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 59 people.

Axcella Health Investment Opportunity

Axcella Health has a volatility of 7.24 and is 6.3 times more volatile than DOW. 62  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Axcella Health. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Axcella Health is higher than 62 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Axcella Health to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Axcella Health to be traded at $1.6245 in 90 days.

Average diversification

The correlation between Axcella Health and DJI is 0.1 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Axcella Health and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Axcella Health Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Axcella Health's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axcella Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Axcella Health stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Axcella Health Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Axcella Health as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Axcella Health's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Axcella Health's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Axcella Health.
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When running Axcella Health price analysis, check to measure Axcella Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Axcella Health is operating at the current time. Most of Axcella Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Axcella Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Axcella Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Axcella Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Axcella Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axcella Health. If investors know Axcella will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axcella Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Axcella Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axcella that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axcella Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axcella Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axcella Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axcella Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axcella Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Axcella Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axcella Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.