# Adecoagro Stock Volatility

AGRO | Stock | ## USD 7.72 0.11 1.40% |

Adecoagro SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0631, which signifies that the company had -0.0631% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Adecoagro SA exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Adecoagro SA mean deviation of 2.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.

Adecoagro |

Adecoagro Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Adecoagro daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Adecoagro's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Adecoagro volatility.

### 30 Days Market Risk

### Chance of Distress

### 30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Adecoagro can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Adecoagro at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Adecoagro stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Adecoagro's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

## Adecoagro Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Adecoagro's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Adecoagro stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Adecoagro stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Adecoagro's beta of 0.59 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Adecoagro stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.

Adecoagro SA exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.2 and kurtosis of 0.51. However, we advise investors to further study Adecoagro SA technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Adecoagro's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Adecoagro's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall. 3 Months Beta |Analyze Adecoagro SA Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Adecoagro correlation with market (NYSE Composite)## Adecoagro Beta |

Adecoagro standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

## Standard Deviation | 2.83 |

It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Adecoagro's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Adecoagro's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in adecoagro stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Adecoagro.

## Using Adecoagro Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Adecoagro grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Adecoagro at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Adecoagro Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Adecoagro's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Adecoagro will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

### Adecoagro's PUT expiring on 2022-12-16

Profit |

Share

Adecoagro Price At Expiration |

### Current Adecoagro Insurance Chain

Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||

Put | 2022-12-16 PUT at $15.0 | -0.7612 | 0.0624 | 88 | 2022-12-16 | 6.7 - 7.8 | 0.0 | View |

Put | 2022-12-16 PUT at $12.5 | -0.839 | 0.0783 | 38 | 2022-12-16 | 4.2 - 5.0 | 0.0 | View |

Put | 2022-12-16 PUT at $10.0 | -0.919 | 0.1114 | 83 | 2022-12-16 | 2.15 - 2.5 | 1.98 | View |

Put | 2022-12-16 PUT at $7.5 | -0.3447 | 0.5923 | 1568 | 2022-12-16 | 0.1 - 0.15 | 0.15 | View |

## Adecoagro SA Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Adecoagro stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Adecoagro's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Adecoagro's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Adecoagro's volatility:

### Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Adecoagro's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Adecoagro's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.### Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Adecoagro's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Adecoagro's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |

The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Adecoagro SA Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input..

## Adecoagro Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Adecoagro has a beta of 0.586 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, Adecoagro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Adecoagro SA will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Adecoagro or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Adecoagro's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Adecoagro stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.

The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Adecoagro SA is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |

Returns |

## What Drives an Adecoagro Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:### Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.### Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.### The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.## Adecoagro Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Adecoagro or Food Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Adecoagro's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Adecoagro stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Adecoagro is -1585.23. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.02 and standard deviation of 2.83. The mean deviation of Adecoagro SA is currently at 2.15. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 1.49

α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.17 | |

β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.59 | |

σ | Overall volatility | 2.83 | |

Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |

## Adecoagro Stock Return Volatility

Adecoagro historical daily return volatility represents how much of Adecoagro stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 2.8325% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 1.5033% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance (%) |

Timeline |

## About Adecoagro Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Adecoagro or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Adecoagro may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Adecoagro's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Adecoagro and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Adecoagro fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.

Please read more on our technical analysis page.Last Reported | Projected for 2022 | ||

Market Capitalization | 900.8 M | 913.5 M |

## Adecoagro Investment Opportunity

Adecoagro SA has a volatility of 2.83 and is 1.89 times more volatile than NYSE Composite.**24**of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Adecoagro. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Adecoagro SA is lower than

**24 ()**of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Adecoagro SA to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Adecoagro to be traded at $7.49 in 90 days.

### Weak diversification

The correlation between Adecoagro SA and NYA is

**0.31**(i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Adecoagro SA and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.## Adecoagro Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Adecoagro's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adecoagro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Adecoagro stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||

Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.23) | |||

Mean Deviation | 2.1 | |||

Coefficient Of Variation | (2,129) | |||

Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||

Variance | 7.72 | |||

Information Ratio | (0.07) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## Adecoagro Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.

The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Adecoagro as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Adecoagro's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Adecoagro's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Adecoagro SA.

Please continue to Trending Equities. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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Is Adecoagro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adecoagro. If investors know Adecoagro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adecoagro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY (0.35) | Market Capitalization 857 M | Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY 0.186 | Return On Assets 0.0477 | Return On Equity 0.1523 |

The market value of Adecoagro SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adecoagro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adecoagro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adecoagro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adecoagro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adecoagro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Adecoagro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Adecoagro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adecoagro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.