Aarons Stock Volatility

AAN -  USA Stock  

USD 18.17  0.88  4.62%

Aarons Holdings secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0484, which signifies that the company had -0.0484% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Aarons Holdings exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Aarons Holdings mean deviation of 2.3, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
  
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Aarons Holdings Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Aarons daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Aarons's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Aarons Holdings volatility.

390 Days Market Risk

Not too volatile

Chance of Distress

Below Average

390 Days Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Aarons Holdings can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Aarons Holdings at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Aarons stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Aarons Holdings' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Aarons Holdings Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Aarons Holdings' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Aarons stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Aarons stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Aarons Holdings's beta of 1.35 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Aarons Holdings stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Aarons's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Aarons Holdings will likely underperform.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Aarons Holdings Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Aarons Holdings correlation with market (DOW)

Aarons Beta

    
  1.35  
Aarons standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.0  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Aarons Holdings's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Aarons Holdings stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Aarons Holdings stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Aarons Holdings.

Aarons Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  61.26  
Aarons Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aarons Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aarons Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aarons Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aarons Holdings' options are near their expiration.

Aarons Holdings Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Aarons Holdings stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Aarons Holdings' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Aarons Holdings' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Aarons Holdings' volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Aarons Holdings' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Aarons Holdings' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Aarons Holdings' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Aarons Holdings high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Aarons Holdings closing price as input.
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Aarons Holdings Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3473 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aarons Holdings will likely underperform.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aarons Holdings or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aarons Holdings stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aarons stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.0184, implying that it can generate a 0.0184 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Aarons Holdings' volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how Aarons Holdings stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Company's Stock Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a company's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Aarons Holdings Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aarons Holdings or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aarons Holdings stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aarons stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Aarons Holdings is -2066.07. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.97 and standard deviation of 3.0. The mean deviation of Aarons Holdings is currently at 2.32. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.35
α
Alpha over DOW
0.0184
β
Beta against DOW1.35
σ
Overall volatility
3.00
Ir
Information ratio -0.01

Aarons Holdings Stock Return Volatility

Aarons Holdings historical daily return volatility represents how much Aarons Holdings stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company has volatility of 2.9952% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.3408% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Aarons Holdings Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Aarons Holdings or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Aarons Holdings may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Aarons's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Aarons Holdings and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Aarons Holdings fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization776.1 M817.3 M
The Aarons Company Inc. provides lease-to-own and purchase solutions. The Aarons Company Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Aarons Holdings operates under Specialty Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 9400 people.

Nearest Aarons long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Aarons Holdings' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aarons Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aarons Holdingsusing the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aarons Holdings over a specific time period.
View All Aarons options
2022-06-17 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Aarons Holdings' common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2021-10-27 at 11:52:57 for $8.6 and, as of today, has 26 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.85, and an ask price of $4.3. The implied volatility as of the 21st of May is 82.8748.
 Profit 
Share
      Aarons Holdings Price At Expiration 

Aarons Holdings Investment Opportunity

Aarons Holdings has a volatility of 3.0 and is 2.24 times more volatile than DOW. 25  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Aarons Holdings. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Aarons Holdings is lower than 25 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Aarons Holdings to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Aarons Holdings to be traded at $17.26 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Aarons's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Aarons Holdings will likely underperform.

Poor diversification

The correlation between Aarons Holdings and DJI is Poor diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Aarons Holdings and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Aarons Holdings Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aarons Holdings' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aarons Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Aarons Holdings stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance(0.09)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.15)
Mean Deviation2.3
Coefficient Of Variation(1,484)
Standard Deviation2.96
Variance8.77
Information Ratio(0.013631)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Aarons Holdings Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Aarons Holdings as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Aarons Holdings' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Aarons Holdings' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Aarons Holdings.
Please continue to Trending Equities. Note that the Aarons Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aarons Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running Aarons Holdings price analysis, check to measure Aarons Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aarons Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Aarons Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aarons Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aarons Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aarons Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aarons Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aarons Holdings. If investors know Aarons will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aarons Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aarons Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aarons that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aarons Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aarons Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aarons Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aarons Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aarons Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aarons Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aarons Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.