Murphy USA Stock Target Price and Analyst Consensus

MUSA
 Stock
  

USD 288.22  0.70  0.24%   

The current analyst and expert consensus on Murphy USA is Hold, with 1 strong buy opinions. The current projected Murphy USA target price consensus is 190.75 with 4 analyst opinions. The most common way Murphy USA analysts use to provide recommendation to the public is financial statements analysis. Many experts also interview Murphy USA executives and customers to further validate their buy or sell advice. Please note, the number of analysts providing the opinion is not sufficient to provide adequate consensus on Murphy USA. We encourage you to use your own analysis of Murphy USA to validate this buy or sell advice. Murphy USA buy-or-sell recommendation module provides average expert sentiment on the projected Murphy USA target price to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on projected price volatility of 14.103. Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Murphy USA to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.
  
As of December 3, 2022, Gross Profit is expected to decline to about 878.3 M. In addition to that, Profit Margin is expected to decline to 1.88. Murphy USA Receivables is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables was at 195.7 Million. The current year Accounts Payable is expected to grow to about 448.8 M, whereas Inventories is forecasted to decline to about 241 M.

Murphy USA Target Price Consensus

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Murphy target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Murphy target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Number of Opinions4
Lowered Outlook0
Raized Outlook1
Hold
Most Murphy analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Murphy stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Murphy USA, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice   Exposure   Valuation

Murphy USA Target Price Projection

Murphy USA's current and average target prices are 288.22 and 190.75, respectively. The current price of Murphy USA is the price at which Murphy USA is currently trading. On the other hand, Murphy USA's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

Murphy USA Market Quote on 3rd of December 2022

Low Price286.19Odds
High Price292.79Odds

288.22

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Murphy USA Target Price

Low Estimate175.0Odds
High Estimate205.0Odds
Number of Analysts4
Standard Deviation14.103

190.75

Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on Murphy USA and the information provided on this page.

Murphy USA Analyst Ratings

Murphy USA's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Murphy USA stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Murphy USA's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Murphy USA's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Analyst Consensus Breakdown

Average Consensus Estimates

About Murphy USA Target Price Projections

Murphy USA's target price is an analyst's projection of its future price. Price targets can be assigned to all types of securities, from complex investment products to stocks such as Murphy USA and even bonds. If the target price is unavailable, it is most likely because there were not enough analyst opinions to come up with a consensus estimate. When setting a price target estimate, an analyst is trying to determine what the Stock is worth and where the price will be in a year from now. Generally, the target price of Murphy depends on its intrinsic valuation, beta (i.e., risk over market), and overall volatility. Most analysts publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with their buy, hold, or sell recommendations. Stock price targets are often quoted in the financial news media. Macroaxis uses multiple feeds to provide overall target price projection for Murphy USA including analysis of its current option contracts.
Murphy USA's latest option contracts expiring on 2022-12-16 are carrying combined implied volatility of 29.91 with a put-to-call open interest ratio of 0.3 over 70 outstanding agreements suggesting investors are buying way more calls than puts on contracts expiring on 2022-12-16. The current put volume is at 19, with calls trading at the volume of 34. This yields a 0.56 put-to-call volume ratio. The Murphy USA option chain provides detailed quote and price information for the current Murphy USA option contracts. It shows all of Murphy USA's listed puts, calls, expiration dates, strike prices, and other pricing information.

Open Interest Against 2022-12-16 Option Contracts

Murphy USA option prices can potentially be used to forecast stock returns because most option chains provide information not only about the current prices but also about the future conditions in Murphy USA's lending market. For example, when Murphy USA's puts are not actively trading or completely missing in the marketplace, investors can use it to internalize expected shorting costs. So if an investor is writing a put option on Murphy USA, he or she must hedge the risk by shorting Murphy USA stock over its option's life.
The chart above shows Murphy USA's distribution of open interest by maturity on contracts that have not yet been settled. The area between the two highest points is the projection of the price at expiration. Murphy USA's open interest chart also provides vital information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for Murphy USA's option, there is no secondary market available for investors to trade.

Murphy USA Maximum Pain Price across 2022-12-16 Option Contracts

Max pain usually refers to a trading concept that asserts that market manipulation can cause the market price of particular securities such as Murphy USA close to expiration to expire worthless. According to most research, approximately 10% to 15% of all stock options are exercised, while about 35% expire worthlessly, with roughly 50% traded out before the expiration date. So, Max pain occurs when market makers reach a net positive position across all options at a strike price where option holders stand to lose the most money. By contrast, option sellers may reap the most after selling more options than buying, causing them to expire worthless.
Murphy USA's stock options are financial instruments that give investors the right to buy or sell shares of Murphy USA common stock at a specified price for a given time period. Generally speaking, an option to purchase or sell Murphy stock makes it part of the underlying stock when the option's price is tied to the movement of the underlying stock. If Murphy USA's stock price goes up or down, the stock options follow.
Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Murphy USA to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Murphy USA In The Money Call Balance

When Murphy USA's strike price is surpassing the current stock price, the option contract against Murphy USA stock is said to be in the money. When it comes to buying Murphy USA's options that are 'In the Money' or 'Out of the Money', the choice depends on your outlook for the underlying security, financial situation, and what you are trying to achieve.
While 'out-of-the-money' option contracts written on Murphy USA are typically viewed as the more aggressive, there are potential upsides to purchasing these types of options contracts. For one, the cost to buy an 'Out of the Money' option is lower than the cost to buy an 'In the Money' option. This cost-benefit is due to the fact that at the time of the purchase, 'Out of the Money' contracts have no intrinsic value. So, while the potential for a 100% loss is more significant, the cost and risk to enter the trade are lower.

Murphy Current Options Market Mood

Murphy USA's open interest and total value indicators provide investors with the necessary information to digest the overall options buildup for its expiring contracts. In addition, it helps Murphy Stock's traders understand whether a recent fall or rise in the market is unreasonable and if the time has come to take contrarian positions. These ratios are calculated based on options trading volumes and current open interest.

Put-to-Call Open Interest

Put-to-Call Volume

Most options investors, including buyers and sellers of Murphy USA's calls and puts, are not very successful. It is estimated that an average options trader loses somewhere between 80% to 90% of the time. Murphy USA's option open interest and volume spread between outstanding puts and calls are regarded by many investors as reliable indicators of the overall future market direction. Using current Murphy USA's option volume and open interest to make an investment decision is considered a contrarian-sentiment measure that can be utilized in many timing strategies in both derivative and spot marketplace.

Additional Murphy USA Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Murphy USA is a key component of Murphy USA valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Murphy USA.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Murphy USA in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
294.09296.08298.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
240.36242.35325.39
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
13.2013.9115.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murphy USA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murphy USA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murphy USA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Murphy USA.

Additional Murphy USA Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Murphy USA is a key component of Murphy USA valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Murphy USA.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Murphy USA in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
294.09296.08298.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
240.36242.35325.39
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
13.2013.9115.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murphy USA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murphy USA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murphy USA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Murphy USA.

Trending Themes

If you are a self-driven investor, you will appreciate our idea-generating investing themes. Our themes help you align your investments inspirations with your core values and are essential building blocks of your portfolios. A typical investing theme is an unweighted collection of up to 20 funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of equities with common characteristics such as industry and growth potential, volatility, or market segment.
Technology
Invested over 20 shares
Impulse
Invested over 200 shares
Investor Favorites
Invested few shares
Additionally, see Macroaxis Advice on Murphy USA to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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The data published in Murphy USA's official financial statements usually reflect Murphy USA's business processes, product offerings, services, and other fundamental events. But there are other numbers, ratios, or fundamental indicators derived from these statements that are easier to understand and visualize within the underlying realities that drive quantitative information of Murphy USA. For example, before you start analyzing numbers published by Murphy accountants, it's critical to develop an understanding of what Murphy USA's liquidity, profitability, and earnings quality are in the context of the Specialty Retail space in which it operates.
Please note, the presentation of Murphy USA's financial position, as portrayed in its financial statements, is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, Murphy USA's management is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, the imprecision that can be found in Murphy USA's accounting process means that the reasonable investor should take a skeptical approach toward the financial statement analysis of Murphy USA. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of Murphy USA's management to manipulate its earnings.