Harley Davidson Stock Target Price and Analyst Consensus

HOG -  USA Stock  

USD 32.34  0.01  0.0309%

The current analyst and expert consensus on Harley Davidson is Hold with 4 hold recommendations. The current projected Harley Davidson target price consensus is 46.86 with 7 analyst opinions. One of the most common ways Harley-Davidson analysts use to provide buy-or-sell recommendation to the public are conference calls analysis and financial statements evaluations. Some experts can also talk to Harley Davidson vendors, executives, and/or customers. Note, the total number of analysts currently providing their opinion is not significant to determine adequate consensus on Harley Davidson. We strongly encourage you to use your own analysis of Harley-Davidson to validate this buy or sell advice. Harley Davidson recommendation module provides expert sentiment on the projected Harley-Davidson target price to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on target price standard deviation of 12.185. Please check Macroaxis Advice on Harley Davidson to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.
  
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As of May 24, 2022, Gross Profit is expected to decline to about 1.8 B. In addition to that, Profit Margin is expected to decline to 0.10. Harley Davidson Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Assets were at 11.05 Billion. The current year Current Assets is expected to grow to about 4.9 B, whereas Accounts Payable is forecasted to decline to about 242.8 M.

Harley Davidson Target Price Consensus

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Harley target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Harley target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Number of Opinions8
Lowered Outlook0
Raized Outlook0
Hold
Most Harley analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Harley stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Harley-Davidson, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice   Exposure   Valuation

Harley Davidson Target Price Projection

Harley Davidson's current and average target prices are 32.34 and 46.86, respectively. The current price of Harley Davidson is the price at which Harley-Davidson is currently trading. On the other hand, Harley Davidson's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

Harley Davidson Market Quote on 24th of May 2022

Low Price31.12Odds
High Price32.92Odds

32.34

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Harley Davidson Target Price

Low Estimate38.0Odds
High Estimate70.0Odds
Number of Analysts7
Standard Deviation12.185

46.857

Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on Harley-Davidson and the information provided on this page.

Harley Davidson Analyst Ratings

Harley Davidson's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Harley Davidson stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Harley Davidson's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Harley Davidson's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Average Consensus Estimates

About Harley Davidson Target Price Projections

Harley Davidson's target price is an analyst's projection of its future price. Price targets can be assigned to all types of securities, from complex investment products to stocks such as Harley-Davidson and even bonds. If the target price is unavailable, it is most likely because there were not enough analyst opinions to come up with a consensus estimate. When setting a price target estimate, an analyst is trying to determine what the Stock is worth and where the price will be in a year from now. Generally, the target price of Harley depends on its intrinsic valuation, beta (i.e., risk over market), and overall volatility. Most analysts publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with their buy, hold, or sell recommendations. Stock price targets are often quoted in the financial news media. Macroaxis uses multiple feeds to provide overall target price projection for Harley-Davidson including analysis of its current option contracts.
Harley Davidson's latest option contracts expiring on 2022-05-27 are carrying combined implied volatility of 76.57 with a put-to-call open interest ratio of 11.06 over 74 outstanding agreements suggesting investors are buying way more puts than calls on contracts expiring on 2022-05-27. The current put volume is at 933, with calls trading at the volume of 191. This yields a 4.88 put-to-call volume ratio. The Harley Davidson option chain provides detailed quote and price information for the current Harley-Davidson option contracts. It shows all of Harley Davidson's listed puts, calls, expiration dates, strike prices, and other pricing information.

Open Interest Against 2022-05-27 Option Contracts

Harley Davidson option prices can potentially be used to forecast stock returns because most option chains provide information not only about the current prices but also about the future conditions in Harley Davidson's lending market. For example, when Harley Davidson's puts are not actively trading or completely missing in the marketplace, investors can use it to internalize expected shorting costs. So if an investor is writing a put option on Harley Davidson, he or she must hedge the risk by shorting Harley Davidson stock over its option's life.
The chart above shows Harley Davidson's distribution of open interest by maturity on contracts that have not yet been settled. The area between the two highest points is the projection of the price at expiration. Harley Davidson's open interest chart also provides vital information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for Harley Davidson's option, there is no secondary market available for investors to trade.

Harley Davidson Maximum Pain Price across 2022-05-27 Option Contracts

Max pain usually refers to a trading concept that asserts that market manipulation can cause the market price of particular securities such as Harley Davidson close to expiration to expire worthless. According to most research, approximately 10% to 15% of all stock options are exercised, while about 35% expire worthlessly, with roughly 50% traded out before the expiration date. So, Max pain occurs when market makers reach a net positive position across all options at a strike price where option holders stand to lose the most money. By contrast, option sellers may reap the most after selling more options than buying, causing them to expire worthless.
Harley Davidson's stock options are financial instruments that give investors the right to buy or sell shares of Harley-Davidson common stock at a specified price for a given time period. Generally speaking, an option to purchase or sell Harley stock makes it part of the underlying stock when the option's price is tied to the movement of the underlying stock. If Harley Davidson's stock price goes up or down, the stock options follow.
Please check Macroaxis Advice on Harley Davidson to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Harley-Davidson In The Money Call Balance

When Harley Davidson's strike price is surpassing the current stock price, the option contract against Harley-Davidson stock is said to be in the money. When it comes to buying Harley Davidson's options that are 'In the Money' or 'Out of the Money', the choice depends on your outlook for the underlying security, financial situation, and what you are trying to achieve.
While 'out-of-the-money' options written on Harley-Davidson are typically viewed as the more aggressive, there are potential upsides to purchasing these types of options contracts. For one, the cost to buy an 'Out of the Money' option is lower than the cost to buy an 'In the Money' option. This cost-benefit is due to the fact that at the time of the purchase, 'Out of the Money' contracts have no intrinsic value. So, while the potential for a 100% loss is more significant, the cost and risk to enter the trade are lower.

Harley Current Options Market Mood

Harley Davidson's open interest and total value indicators provide investors with the necessary information to digest the overall options buildup for its expiring contracts. In addition, it helps Harley Stock's traders understand whether a recent fall or rise in the market is unreasonable and if the time has come to take contrarian positions. These ratios are calculated based on options trading volumes and current open interest.

Put-to-Call Open Interest

Put-to-Call Volume

Most options investors, including buyers and sellers of Harley Davidson's calls and puts, are not very successful. It is estimated that an average options trader loses somewhere between 80% to 90% of the time. Harley Davidson's option open interest and volume spread between outstanding puts and calls are regarded by many investors as reliable indicators of the overall future market direction. Using current Harley Davidson's option volume and open interest to make an investment decision is considered a contrarian-sentiment measure that can be utilized in many timing strategies in both derivative and spot marketplace.

Additional Harley Davidson Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Harley Davidson is a key component of Harley Davidson valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Harley Davidson.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harley Davidson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.3532.3835.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.1137.9040.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
33.7336.7639.79
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.803.923.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Additional Harley Davidson Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Harley Davidson is a key component of Harley Davidson valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Harley Davidson.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harley Davidson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.3532.3835.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.1137.9040.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
33.7336.7639.79
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.803.923.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Currently Trending Themes

If you are a self-driven investor, you will appreciate our idea-generating investing themes. Our themes help you align your investments inspirations with your core values and are essential building blocks of your portfolios. A typical investing theme is an unweighted collection of up to 20 funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of equities with common characteristics such as industry and growth potential, volatility, or market segment.
Macroaxis Index
Invested over 90 shares
Software
Invested few shares
Please check Macroaxis Advice on Harley Davidson to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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The data published in Harley Davidson's official financial statements usually reflect Harley Davidson's business processes, product offerings, services, and other fundamental events. But there are other numbers, ratios, or fundamental indicators derived from these statements that are easier to understand and visualize within the underlying realities that drive quantitative information of Harley-Davidson. For example, before you start analyzing numbers published by Harley accountants, it's critical to develop an understanding of what Harley Davidson's liquidity, profitability, and earnings quality are in the context of the Consumer Cyclical space in which it operates.
Please note, the presentation of Harley Davidson's financial position, as portrayed in its financial statements, is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, Harley Davidson's management is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, the imprecision that can be found in Harley Davidson's accounting process means that the reasonable investor should take a skeptical approach toward the financial statement analysis of Harley-Davidson. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of Harley Davidson's management to manipulate its earnings.