Advance Auto Stock Target Price and Analyst Consensus

AAP -  USA Stock  

USD 181.89  14.18  7.23%

The current analyst and expert consensus on Advance Auto is Buy with 6 hold recommendations. The current projected Advance Auto target price consensus is 255.77 with 13 analyst opinions. One of the most common ways Advance Auto Parts analysts use to provide buy-or-sell recommendation to the public are conference calls analysis and financial statements evaluations. Some experts can also talk to Advance Auto vendors, executives, and/or customers. Advance Auto recommendation module provides expert sentiment on the projected Advance Auto Parts target price to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on target price standard deviation of 30.326. Please continue to Macroaxis Advice on Advance Auto to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.
  
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As of 23rd of May 2022, Gross Profit is likely to drop to about 4.8 B. In addition to that, Profit Margin is likely to drop to 0.05. Advance Auto Shareholders Equity is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Shareholders Equity of 3.13 Billion. As of 23rd of May 2022, Goodwill and Intangible Assets is likely to grow to about 1.7 B, while Accounts Payable is likely to drop about 2.7 B.

Advance Auto Target Price Consensus

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Advance target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Advance target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Number of Opinions15
Lowered Outlook0
Raized Outlook0
Buy
Most Advance analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Advance stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Advance Auto Parts, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice   Exposure   Valuation

Advance Auto Target Price Projection

Advance Auto's current and average target prices are 181.89 and 255.77, respectively. The current price of Advance Auto is the price at which Advance Auto Parts is currently trading. On the other hand, Advance Auto's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth or could sell for in the future. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.

Current Price

Advance Auto Market Quote on 23rd of May 2022

Low Price176.72Odds
High Price197.55Odds

181.89

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Advance Auto Target Price

Low Estimate175.0Odds
High Estimate290.0Odds
Number of Analysts13
Standard Deviation30.326

255.769

Note that most analysts generally publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with recommendations for the company's stock.Although price targets are often quoted in the financial news media, there could be a delay between the publication of the latest analyst outlook on Advance Auto Parts and the information provided on this page.

Advance Auto Analyst Ratings

Advance Auto's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Advance Auto stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Advance Auto's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Advance Auto's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.

Average Consensus Estimates

About Advance Auto Target Price Projections

Advance Auto's target price is an analyst's projection of its future price. Price targets can be assigned to all types of securities, from complex investment products to stocks such as Advance Auto Parts and even bonds. If the target price is unavailable, it is most likely because there were not enough analyst opinions to come up with a consensus estimate. When setting a price target estimate, an analyst is trying to determine what the Stock is worth and where the price will be in a year from now. Generally, the target price of Advance depends on its intrinsic valuation, beta (i.e., risk over market), and overall volatility. Most analysts publish their price targets in research reports on specific companies, along with their buy, hold, or sell recommendations. Stock price targets are often quoted in the financial news media. Macroaxis uses multiple feeds to provide overall target price projection for Advance Auto Parts including analysis of its current option contracts.
Advance Auto's latest option contracts expiring on 2022-06-17 are carrying combined implied volatility of 62.97 with a put-to-call open interest ratio of 1.2 over 74 outstanding agreements suggesting investors are buying more puts than calls on contracts expiring on 2022-06-17. The current put volume is at 2125, with calls trading at the volume of 516. This yields a 4.12 put-to-call volume ratio. The Advance Auto option chain provides detailed quote and price information for the current Advance Auto Parts option contracts. It shows all of Advance Auto's listed puts, calls, expiration dates, strike prices, and other pricing information.

Open Interest Against 2022-06-17 Option Contracts

Advance Auto option prices can potentially be used to forecast stock returns because most option chains provide information not only about the current prices but also about the future conditions in Advance Auto's lending market. For example, when Advance Auto's puts are not actively trading or completely missing in the marketplace, investors can use it to internalize expected shorting costs. So if an investor is writing a put option on Advance Auto, he or she must hedge the risk by shorting Advance Auto stock over its option's life.
The chart above shows Advance Auto's distribution of open interest by maturity on contracts that have not yet been settled. The area between the two highest points is the projection of the price at expiration. Advance Auto's open interest chart also provides vital information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for Advance Auto's option, there is no secondary market available for investors to trade.

Advance Auto Maximum Pain Price across 2022-06-17 Option Contracts

Max pain usually refers to a trading concept that asserts that market manipulation can cause the market price of particular securities such as Advance Auto close to expiration to expire worthless. According to most research, approximately 10% to 15% of all stock options are exercised, while about 35% expire worthlessly, with roughly 50% traded out before the expiration date. So, Max pain occurs when market makers reach a net positive position across all options at a strike price where option holders stand to lose the most money. By contrast, option sellers may reap the most after selling more options than buying, causing them to expire worthless.
Advance Auto's stock options are financial instruments that give investors the right to buy or sell shares of Advance Auto Parts common stock at a specified price for a given time period. Generally speaking, an option to purchase or sell Advance stock makes it part of the underlying stock when the option's price is tied to the movement of the underlying stock. If Advance Auto's stock price goes up or down, the stock options follow.
Please continue to Macroaxis Advice on Advance Auto to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Advance Auto Parts In The Money Call Balance

When Advance Auto's strike price is surpassing the current stock price, the option contract against Advance Auto Parts stock is said to be in the money. When it comes to buying Advance Auto's options that are 'In the Money' or 'Out of the Money', the choice depends on your outlook for the underlying security, financial situation, and what you are trying to achieve.
While 'out-of-the-money' options written on Advance Auto Parts are typically viewed as the more aggressive, there are potential upsides to purchasing these types of options contracts. For one, the cost to buy an 'Out of the Money' option is lower than the cost to buy an 'In the Money' option. This cost-benefit is due to the fact that at the time of the purchase, 'Out of the Money' contracts have no intrinsic value. So, while the potential for a 100% loss is more significant, the cost and risk to enter the trade are lower.

Advance Current Options Market Mood

Advance Auto's open interest and total value indicators provide investors with the necessary information to digest the overall options buildup for its expiring contracts. In addition, it helps Advance Stock's traders understand whether a recent fall or rise in the market is unreasonable and if the time has come to take contrarian positions. These ratios are calculated based on options trading volumes and current open interest.

Put-to-Call Open Interest

Put-to-Call Volume

Most options investors, including buyers and sellers of Advance Auto's calls and puts, are not very successful. It is estimated that an average options trader loses somewhere between 80% to 90% of the time. Advance Auto's option open interest and volume spread between outstanding puts and calls are regarded by many investors as reliable indicators of the overall future market direction. Using current Advance Auto's option volume and open interest to make an investment decision is considered a contrarian-sentiment measure that can be utilized in many timing strategies in both derivative and spot marketplace.

Additional Advance Auto Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Advance Auto is a key component of Advance Auto valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Advance Auto.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
179.36181.95184.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
163.70202.46205.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
184.97187.56190.14
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.5011.8712.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Additional Advance Auto Value Projection Modules

Most investment researchers agree that the mispricing and readjustment of any Stock value happens often and is sometimes even predictable, but there is no strong theory explaining why it happens. The current price of Advance Auto is a key component of Advance Auto valuation and have some predictive power on the future returns of a Advance Auto.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
179.36181.95184.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
163.70202.46205.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
184.97187.56190.14
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.5011.8712.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Currently Trending Themes

If you are a self-driven investor, you will appreciate our idea-generating investing themes. Our themes help you align your investments inspirations with your core values and are essential building blocks of your portfolios. A typical investing theme is an unweighted collection of up to 20 funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of equities with common characteristics such as industry and growth potential, volatility, or market segment.
Macroaxis Index
Invested over 90 shares
Software
Invested few shares
Please continue to Macroaxis Advice on Advance Auto to cross-verify analyst projections. Unlike analyst recommendations, Macroaxis provides advice only from the perspective of investor risk tolerance and investment horizon. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Advance Auto Parts price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The data published in Advance Auto's official financial statements usually reflect Advance Auto's business processes, product offerings, services, and other fundamental events. But there are other numbers, ratios, or fundamental indicators derived from these statements that are easier to understand and visualize within the underlying realities that drive quantitative information of Advance Auto Parts. For example, before you start analyzing numbers published by Advance accountants, it's critical to develop an understanding of what Advance Auto's liquidity, profitability, and earnings quality are in the context of the Consumer Cyclical space in which it operates.
Please note, the presentation of Advance Auto's financial position, as portrayed in its financial statements, is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, Advance Auto's management is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, the imprecision that can be found in Advance Auto's accounting process means that the reasonable investor should take a skeptical approach toward the financial statement analysis of Advance Auto Parts. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of Advance Auto's management to manipulate its earnings.