Origin Stock Today

SEED
 Stock
  

USD 7.96  0.08  0.99%   

Market Performance
0 of 100
Odds Of Distress
Less than 50
Origin Agritech is trading at 7.96 as of the 27th of June 2022, a -0.99 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 7.62. Origin Agritech has 50 percent odds of going through some form of financial distress in the next two years and has generated negative returns to investors over the last 90 days. Equity ratings for Origin Agritech are calculated daily based on our scoring framework. The performance scores are derived for the period starting the 28th of May 2022 and ending today, the 27th of June 2022. Click here to learn more.
CUSIP
G67828106
Fiscal Year End
September
Business Domain
Food, Beverage & Tobacco
IPO Date
5th of May 2004
Category
Basic Materials
Classification
Consumer Staples
ISIN
VGG678282051
Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates an agricultural biotechnology and an e-commerce platform in the Peoples Republic of China. Origin Agritech Limited was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Origin Agritech operates under Agricultural Inputs classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. The company has 5.7 M outstanding shares of which 302.13 K shares are at this time shorted by private and institutional investors with about 0.35 trading days to cover. More on Origin Agritech

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Origin Agritech Stock Highlights

Most reasonable investors view market volatility as an opportunity to invest at a favorable price or to sell short against a bearish trend. If you consider yourself one of those investors, make sure you clearly understand your entering position. Origin Agritech's investment highlights are automatically generated signals that are significant enough to either complement your investing judgment regarding Origin Agritech or challenge it. These highlights can help you better understand the position you are entering and avoid costly mistakes.
Origin Agritech has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Origin Agritech has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 140.77 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.2, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Origin Agritech until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Origin Agritech's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Origin Agritech sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Origin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 46.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (91.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.81 M.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 15.35 M in cash with (25.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.66.
Roughly 27.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Origin Agritech Share Price Passes Above 200 Day Moving Average of 7.49 - Defense World
President CEOWilliam Niebur
Macroaxis Advice
Unlike general analyst consensus, Macroaxis buy hold or sell recommendation is provided in the context of your current investment horizon and risk tolerance. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Origin Agritech's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators. Your current horizon is 90 days - details
Strong HoldFairly Valued
Origin Agritech (SEED) is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in USA and employs 54 people. The company currently falls under 'Micro-Cap' category with current market capitalization of 45.84 M. Market capitalization usually refers to the total value of a company's stock within the entire market. To calculate Origin Agritech's market, we take the total number of its shares issued and multiply it by Origin Agritech's current market price. To manage market risk and economic uncertainty, many investors today build portfolios that are diversified across equities with different market capitalizations. However, as a general rule, conservative investors tend to hold large-cap stocks, and these looking for more risk prefer small-cap and mid-cap equities. Origin Agritech conducts business under Basic Materials sector and is part of Agricultural Inputs industry. The entity has 5.7 M outstanding shares of which 302.13 K shares are at this time shorted by private and institutional investors with about 0.35 trading days to cover. Origin Agritech currently holds about 15.35 M in cash with (25.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.66.
Check Origin Agritech Probability Of Bankruptcy
Ownership
The market capitalization of Origin Agritech is $45.84 Million. Origin Agritech has significant amount of outstanding shares owned by insiders. An insider is usually defined as a CEO, other corporate executive, director, or institutional investor who own at least 10% of the company outstanding shares. Since such a large part of the company is owned by insiders, it is advisable to analyze if each of these insiders have been buying or selling the stock in recent months. Note, that even with negative profits, if the true value of the company is larger than the current market value, you may still be able to generate positive returns on investment in this company.

Ownership Allocation (%)

Check Origin Ownership Details

Origin Stock Price Odds Analysis

What are Origin Agritech's target price odds to finish over the current price? Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech jumping above the current price in 90 days from now is about 46.02%. The Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Agritech stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has a beta coefficient of 1.2469. This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Origin Agritech will likely underperform. Additionally, the company has an alpha of 0.1473, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
  Odds Below 7.96HorizonTargetOdds Above 7.96
53.84%90 days
 7.96 
46.02%
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 46.02 (This Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .

Origin Agritech Risk Profiles

Investors will always prefer to have the highest possible return on investment while minimizing volatility. Origin Agritech market risk premium is the additional return an investor will receive from holding Origin Agritech long position in a well-diversified portfolio. The market premium is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which most analysts and investors use to calculate the acceptable rate of return on investment in Origin Agritech. At the center of the CAPM is the concept of risk and reward, which is usually communicated by investors using alpha and beta measures. Although Origin Agritech's alpha and beta are two of the key measurements used to evaluate Origin Agritech's performance over the market, the standard measures of volatility play an important role as well.

Origin Stock Against Markets

Picking the right benchmark for Origin Agritech stock is fundamental to making educated investment choices. Many naive investors compare their positions with the S&P 500 or with the Nasdaq. But these benchmarks are not all-inclusive and generally should be used only for large-capitalization equities or stock offerings from large companies. When the price of a selected benchmark declines in a down market, there may be an uptick in Origin Agritech stock price where buyers come in believing the asset is cheap. The opposite is true when the market is bullish; so, accurately picking the benchmark for Origin Agritech is critical whether you are bullish or bearish towards Origin Agritech at a given time.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Origin Agritech without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Origin Agritech Corporate Directors

Origin Agritech corporate directors refer to members of an Origin Agritech board of directors. The board of directors generally takes responsibility for the Origin Agritech's affairs and long-term direction of the entity. A corporate director does not make decisions for the corporation on his own. As a member of the board of directors, she or he must function as a part of a group that makes decisions on behalf of the business only by the board of directors' meetings. To pass a resolution, a majority of Origin Agritech's board members must vote for the resolution. The Origin Agritech board of directors' duties also include the election, removal, and supervision of officers, including the adoption, amendment, and repeal of bylaws.
Michael Trimble - Independent DirectorProfile
James Kang - Independent DirectorProfile
Larry Cordell - Independent DirectorProfile
Geoffery Merszei - DirectorProfile

Investing Origin Agritech

You need to understand the risk of investing before taking a position in Origin Agritech. The danger of trading Origin Agritech is mainly related to its market volatility and company specific events. As an investor, you must understand the concept of risk-adjusted return before you start trading. The most common way to measure the risk of Origin Agritech is by using the Sharpe ratio. The ratio expresses how much excess return you acquire for the extra volatility you endure for holding a more risker asset than Origin Agritech. The Shape ratio is calculated by using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk. To understand how volatile Origin Agritech is, you must compare it to a benchmark. Traditionally, the risk-free rate of return is the rate of return on the shortest-dated U.S. Treasury, such as a 3-year bond.
Additionally, take a look at World Market Map. Note that the Origin Agritech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Agritech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis

When running Origin Agritech price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Origin Agritech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
46.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
2.98
Return On Assets
-0.21
Return On Equity
-3.72
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Origin Agritech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.