Valero Stock Future Price Prediction

VLO
 Stock
  

USD 136.18  2.22  1.60%   

Valero Energy Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Valero Energy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Valero Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Valero Energy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Valero Energy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Valero Energy Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Valero Energy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Valero stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Valero Energy over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
5.36
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
5.93
EPS Estimate Current Year
27.21
EPS Estimate Next Year
17.64
Wall Street Target Price
141.77
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
6.84
Using Valero Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valero Energy Corp from the perspective of Valero Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valero Energy using Valero Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valero Energy's stock price.
Valero Energy Accounts Payable Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 14.22. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to rise to 61.67 this year, although the value of Long Term Debt to Equity will most likely fall to 0.54.

Valero Energy Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Valero Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Valero. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Valero Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Valero Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valero Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valero Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
112.29
Short Percent
0.0266
Short Ratio
2.27
Shares Short Prior Month
9.8 M
50 Day MA
121.85
Shares Short
M

Valero Energy Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valero Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valero Energy.

Valero Energy Implied Volatility

    
  44.03  
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Valero Energy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valero Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valero because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Valero Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 138.51  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valero contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valero Energy Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.75% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Valero Energy trading at $136.18, that is roughly $3.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valero Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valero Energy Corp options at the current volatility level of 44.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valero Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Valero Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
107.81110.70152.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
140.11142.99145.88
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0092.38119.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.781.461.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Valero Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Valero Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Valero Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Valero Energy Corp.

Valero Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Valero Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valero Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valero Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Valero Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Valero Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valero Energy's historical news coverage. Valero Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 135.62 and 141.40, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 136.18
135.62
Downside
138.51
After-hype Price
141.40
Upside
Valero Energy is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valero Energy Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Valero Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valero Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valero Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.31  2.89  0.11    1.27  5 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
136.18138.510.08 
802.78  

Valero Energy Hype Timeline

On the 28th of November Valero Energy Corp is traded for 136.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.27. Valero is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 138.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.08% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Valero Energy is about 70.49% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 134.91. The company reported the last year's revenue of 164.89 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 9.42 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.49 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 5 days.
Also, please take a look at Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Valero Energy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Valero Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valero Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Valero Energy rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valero Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Valero Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Valero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valero using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Valero Energy Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Valero Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valero Energy Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valero Energy based on analysis of Valero Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valero Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valero Energy's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.420.740.680.54
Interest Coverage8.453.534.064.17

Story Coverage note for Valero Energy

The number of cover stories for Valero Energy depends on current market conditions and Valero Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valero Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valero Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Valero Energy Short Properties

Valero Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valero Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valero Energy Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.50%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.92
Short Percent Of Float2.84%
Float Shares392M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.88M
Shares Short Prior Month10.7M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.95M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.76%
Also, please take a look at Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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When running Valero Energy Corp price analysis, check to measure Valero Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valero Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Valero Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valero Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valero Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valero Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valero Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
5.36
Market Capitalization
53.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.55
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.46
The market value of Valero Energy Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Valero Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.