US Oil Etf Price Prediction Breakdown

USO
 Etf
  

USD 64.42  1.22  1.93%   

US Oil Fund etf price prediction is an act of determining the future value of US Oil shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of US Oil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of US Oil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from US Oil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with US Oil Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at US Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether etf price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of US Oil based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The US Oil price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on US Oil over a specific investment horizon.Using US Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of US Oil Fund from the perspective of US Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards US Oil using US Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards US Oil using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of US Oil's stock price.

US Oil Implied Volatility

    
  55.08  
US Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of US Oil Fund stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if US Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that US Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when US Oil's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in US Oil. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in US Oil to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying US Oil because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

US Oil after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 64.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current US Oil contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that US Oil Fund will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.44% per day over the life of the 2022-09-30 option contract. With US Oil trading at $64.42, that is roughly $2.22. If you think that the market is fully incorporating US Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring US Oil Fund options at the current volatility level of 55.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of US Oil in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
59.2761.9864.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
60.0462.7565.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
64.7272.0075.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as US Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against US Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, US Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in US Oil Fund.

US Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of US Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in US Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of US Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

US Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting US Oil's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on US Oil's historical news coverage. US Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.71 and 67.13, respectively. We have considered US Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 64.42
64.42
After-hype Price
67.13
Upside
US Oil is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of US Oil Fund is based on 3 months time horizon.

US Oil Etf Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as US Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading US Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with US Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.31  2.69  0.00    0.01  0 Events / Month0 Events / MonthAny time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
64.4264.420.00 
0.00  

US Oil Hype Timeline

On the 28th of September US Oil Fund is traded for 64.42. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. US Oil projected not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of insignificant. The immediate return on the next newsis projected to be very small whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.31%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to US Oil is about 6725.0%. The volatility of related hype on US Oil is about 6725.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 64.41. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.68. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. US Oil Fund had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1-8 split on the 29th of April 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be any time.
Also, please take a look at US Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

US Oil Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to US Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict US Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how US Oil rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how US Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

US Oil Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine US Oil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for US Oil using various technical indicators. When you analyze US Oil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About US Oil Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of US Oil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as US Oil Fund, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of US Oil based on analysis of US Oil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to US Oil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to US Oil's related companies.

Story Coverage note for US Oil

The number of cover stories for US Oil depends on current market conditions and US Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that US Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about US Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

US Oil Short Properties

US Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when US Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of US Oil Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential US Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. US Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.08M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.45M
Also, please take a look at US Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running US Oil Fund price analysis, check to measure US Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy US Oil is operating at the current time. Most of US Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of US Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move US Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of US Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of US Oil Fund is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of US Oil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine US Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.