Urban Stock Future Price Prediction

URBN
 Stock
  

USD 22.29  0.52  2.28%   

Urban Outfitters stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Urban Outfitters shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Urban Outfitters' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Urban Outfitters' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Urban Outfitters, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Urban Outfitters based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Urban stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Urban Outfitters over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.39
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.24
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.9
Wall Street Target Price
23.92
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.42
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Using Urban Outfitters hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urban Outfitters from the perspective of Urban Outfitters response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Urban Outfitters using Urban Outfitters' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Urban using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Urban Outfitters' stock price.
Urban Outfitters Return on Investment is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Return on Investment is estimated at 27.02. Revenue to Assets is expected to rise to 1.51 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 4.00.

Urban Outfitters Implied Volatility

    
  40.8  
Urban Outfitters' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Urban Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Urban Outfitters stock will not fluctuate a lot when Urban Outfitters' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Urban Outfitters. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Urban Outfitters to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Urban because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Urban Outfitters after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 22.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Urban contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Urban Outfitters will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.55% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Urban Outfitters trading at $22.29, that is roughly $0.57. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Urban Outfitters' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Urban Outfitters options at the current volatility level of 40.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Urban Outfitters' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Urban Outfitters in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.5328.8532.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
18.3622.4926.61
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
31.0039.5546.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.243.323.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Urban Outfitters. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Urban Outfitters' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Urban Outfitters' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Urban Outfitters.

Urban Outfitters After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Urban Outfitters at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urban Outfitters or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Urban Outfitters, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Urban Outfitters Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Urban Outfitters' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urban Outfitters' historical news coverage. Urban Outfitters' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.68 and 26.94, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 22.29
22.81
After-hype Price
26.94
Upside
Urban Outfitters is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urban Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.

Urban Outfitters Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Urban Outfitters is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urban Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urban Outfitters, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.20  3.92  0.00   0.00  7 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
22.2922.810.00 
39,200  

Urban Outfitters Hype Timeline

Urban Outfitters is at this time traded for 22.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Urban forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Urban Outfitters is about 27138.46%. The volatility of related hype on Urban Outfitters is about 27138.46% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 22.29. About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.17. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Urban Outfitters had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Urban Outfitters Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Urban Outfitters' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urban Outfitters' future price movements. Getting to know how Urban Outfitters rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urban Outfitters may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CSCOCisco Systems 0.57 10 per month 0.00 (0.06)  2.73 (1.61)  17.00 
DISWalt Disney 0.53 10 per month 1.75  0.08  3.98 (3.76)  7.34 
VZVerizon Communications(0.55) 10 per month 0.00 (0.11)  1.79 (2.43)  10.04 
MCDMcDonalds Corp 2.71 8 per month 1.04  0.0299  2.22 (1.55)  4.73 
DDDupont Denemours 0.38 9 per month 1.96 (0.039)  3.56 (3.21)  9.48 
INTCIntel Corp 0.15 9 per month 0.00 (0.14)  3.11 (3.61)  12.47 
AAAlcoa Corp(0.20) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0467)  5.50 (5.50)  17.64 
CATCaterpillar(2.36) 9 per month 0.00 (0.06)  3.82 (4.35)  11.37 
MMM3M Company(1.10) 8 per month 1.34 (0.0181)  2.50 (2.13)  6.70 

Urban Outfitters Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Urban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Urban Outfitters Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Urban Outfitters stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Urban Outfitters, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters based on analysis of Urban Outfitters hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Urban Outfitters's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Urban Outfitters's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover4.733.74.314.0
Calculated Tax Rate29.8864.8223.2327.9

Story Coverage note for Urban Outfitters

The number of cover stories for Urban Outfitters depends on current market conditions and Urban Outfitters' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Urban Outfitters is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Urban Outfitters' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Urban Outfitters Short Properties

Urban Outfitters' future price predictability will typically decrease when Urban Outfitters' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Urban Outfitters often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out15.37%
Short Percent Of Float21.83%
Float Shares67.54M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.88M
Shares Short Prior Month10.25M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.62M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Also, please take a look at Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.39
Market Capitalization
2.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.066
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Urban Outfitters value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.