United Stock Future Price Prediction

UPS
 Stock
  

USD 161.54  3.78  2.29%   

United Parcel Service stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of United Parcel shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of United Parcel's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of United Parcel and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from United Parcel's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with United Parcel Service, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of United Parcel based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The United stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on United Parcel over a specific investment horizon.Using United Parcel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Parcel Service from the perspective of United Parcel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Parcel using United Parcel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Parcel's stock price.

United Parcel Implied Volatility

    
  41.68  
United Parcel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Parcel Service stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Parcel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Parcel stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Parcel's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in United Parcel. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in United Parcel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying United because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

United Parcel after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 161.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Parcel Service will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.6% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With United Parcel trading at $161.54, that is roughly $4.21. If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Parcel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Parcel Service options at the current volatility level of 41.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Parcel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of United Parcel in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
145.39167.12168.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
157.11158.79160.48
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
135.00216.31260.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
159.37190.06220.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United Parcel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United Parcel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United Parcel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in United Parcel Service.

United Parcel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of United Parcel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Parcel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Parcel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

United Parcel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting United Parcel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Parcel's historical news coverage. United Parcel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 160.14 and 163.50, respectively. We have considered United Parcel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 161.54
160.14
Downside
161.82
After-hype Price
163.50
Upside
United Parcel is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Parcel Service is based on 3 months time horizon.

United Parcel Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as United Parcel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Parcel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Parcel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.20  1.68  0.26    0.54  15 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 15 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
161.54161.820.17 
127.27  

United Parcel Hype Timeline

On the 1st of October United Parcel Service is traded for 161.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.54. United is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 161.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 127.27%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.17% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on United Parcel is about 62.69% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 161.0. The company reported the last year's revenue of 100.1 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 10.93 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.87 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 15 days.
Also, please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

United Parcel Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to United Parcel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Parcel's future price movements. Getting to know how United Parcel rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Parcel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

United Parcel Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About United Parcel Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of United Parcel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as United Parcel Service, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of United Parcel based on analysis of United Parcel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to United Parcel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to United Parcel's related companies.

Story Coverage note for United Parcel

The number of cover stories for United Parcel depends on current market conditions and United Parcel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Parcel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Parcel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

United Parcel Short Properties

United Parcel's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Parcel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Parcel Service often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Parcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Parcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date12th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out1.43%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.08
Short Percent Of Float1.70%
Float Shares731.44M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.25M
Shares Short Prior Month12.03M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.78M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Also, please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running United Parcel Service price analysis, check to measure United Parcel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Parcel is operating at the current time. Most of United Parcel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Parcel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Parcel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Parcel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Parcel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Parcel. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Parcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of United Parcel Service is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Parcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Parcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Parcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Parcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Parcel value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.