Ulta Beauty Stock Future Price Prediction

ULTA
 Stock
  

USD 392.30  9.37  2.33%   

Ulta Beauty stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ulta Beauty shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ulta Beauty's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ulta Beauty's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ulta Beauty, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ulta Beauty based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ulta Beauty stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ulta Beauty over a specific investment horizon.Using Ulta Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ulta Beauty from the perspective of Ulta Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ulta Beauty using Ulta Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ulta Beauty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ulta Beauty's stock price.

Ulta Beauty Implied Volatility

    
  41.01  
Ulta Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ulta Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ulta Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ulta Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ulta Beauty's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ulta Beauty. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ulta Beauty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ulta Beauty because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ulta Beauty after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 392.46  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ulta Beauty contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ulta Beauty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.56% per day over the life of the 2022-09-30 option contract. With Ulta Beauty trading at $392.3, that is roughly $10.05. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ulta Beauty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ulta Beauty options at the current volatility level of 41.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ulta Beauty in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
353.07426.96428.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
366.13367.89369.66
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
340.00453.10516.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
383.04397.88412.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ulta Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ulta Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ulta Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ulta Beauty.

Ulta Beauty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ulta Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ulta Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ulta Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ulta Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ulta Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ulta Beauty's historical news coverage. Ulta Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 390.69 and 394.23, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 392.30
390.69
Downside
392.46
After-hype Price
394.23
Upside
Ulta Beauty is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ulta Beauty is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ulta Beauty Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Ulta Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ulta Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ulta Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.04  1.74  0.31   0.03  10 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
392.30392.460.04 
22.19  

Ulta Beauty Hype Timeline

Ulta Beauty is at this time traded for 392.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.31 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Ulta Beauty is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 392.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 22.19%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.04% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Ulta Beauty is about 208.8% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 392.33. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 9.04 B. Net Income was 1.09 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.76 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ulta Beauty Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ulta Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ulta Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how Ulta Beauty rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ulta Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Ulta Beauty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ulta Beauty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ulta Beauty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ulta Beauty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ulta Beauty Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ulta Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ulta Beauty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty based on analysis of Ulta Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ulta Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ulta Beauty's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Ulta Beauty

The number of cover stories for Ulta Beauty depends on current market conditions and Ulta Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ulta Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ulta Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ulta Beauty Short Properties

Ulta Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ulta Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ulta Beauty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.07%
Short Percent Of Float3.51%
Float Shares51.08M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day975.74k
Shares Short Prior Month1.23M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month856.26k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Also, please take a look at Ulta Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running Ulta Beauty price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ulta Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta Beauty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta Beauty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ulta Beauty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.