Universal Stock Future Price Prediction

UHS
 Stock
  

USD 129.35  0.85  0.65%   

Universal Health Services stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Universal Health shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Universal Health's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Universal Health and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Universal Health's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Universal Health Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Universal Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Universal Health based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Universal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Universal Health over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.038) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.14
EPS Estimate Current Year
9.84
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.82
Wall Street Target Price
124.35
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.43
Using Universal Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Universal Health Services from the perspective of Universal Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Universal Health using Universal Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Universal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Universal Health's stock price.
Universal Health Operating Margin is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Universal Health reported last year Operating Margin of 10.78. As of 12/03/2022, Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to grow to 19.37, while Cash Flow Per Share is likely to drop 11.20.

Universal Health Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Universal Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Universal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Universal Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Universal Health may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Universal Health and may potentially protect profits, hedge Universal Health with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
118.19
Short Percent
0.0454
Short Ratio
2.36
Shares Short Prior Month
3.4 M
50 Day MA
107.72
Shares Short
2.1 M

Universal Health Services Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Universal Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Universal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Universal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Universal Health Services. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Universal Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Universal Health.

Universal Health Implied Volatility

    
  50.27  
Universal Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Universal Health Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Universal Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Universal Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Universal Health's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Universal Health. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Universal Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Universal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Universal Health after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 129.24  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Universal contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Universal Health Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.14% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Universal Health trading at USD129.35, that is roughly USD4.06. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Universal Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Universal Health Services options at the current volatility level of 50.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Universal Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
117.77145.84148.85
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
136.00150.00165.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.5911.7211.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Universal Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Universal Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Universal Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Universal Health Services.

Universal Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Universal Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Universal Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Universal Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Universal Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Universal Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Universal Health's historical news coverage. Universal Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.23 and 132.25, respectively. We have considered Universal Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 129.35
126.23
Downside
129.24
After-hype Price
132.25
Upside
Universal Health is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Universal Health Services is based on 3 months time horizon.

Universal Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Universal Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Universal Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Universal Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.52  3.01   1.61   0.25  5 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
129.35129.241.23 
97.10  

Universal Health Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of December Universal Health Services is traded for 129.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.61 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.25. Universal is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 129.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 97.1%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -1.23% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Universal Health is about 638.48% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 129.6. About 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.62. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Universal Health Services has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.87. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.7. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. Universal Health had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 2009. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Also, please take a look at Universal Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Universal Health Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Universal Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Universal Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Universal Health rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Universal Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ABMDABIOMED 3.47 8 per month 1.24  0.1  3.47 (3.56)  51.02 
ABTAbbott Laboratories(0.89) 7 per month 1.71 (0.0027)  2.87 (2.23)  10.13 
ACETAdicet Bio 0.68 7 per month 4.75  0.10  6.45 (8.00)  22.53 
AEMDAethlon Medical 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.27)  6.25 (8.00)  24.14 
ALGNAlign Technology 0.07 6 per month 0.00 (0.08)  4.87 (5.42)  24.71 
AMEHApollo Medical Holdings(0.48) 4 per month 0.00 (0.18)  5.14 (6.11)  23.62 
ANGOAngioDynamics 0.44 6 per month 0.00 (0.23)  4.45 (8.30)  24.63 

Universal Health Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Universal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Universal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Universal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Universal Health Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Universal Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Universal Health Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Universal Health based on analysis of Universal Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Universal Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Universal Health's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.710.560.680.93
Interest Coverage7.4712.7816.2917.58

Story Coverage note for Universal Health

The number of cover stories for Universal Health depends on current market conditions and Universal Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Universal Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Universal Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Universal Health Short Properties

Universal Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Universal Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Universal Health Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Universal Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding85587000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments115301000.00
Also, please take a look at Universal Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Universal Health Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Universal Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Universal Health Services price analysis, check to measure Universal Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Health is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Universal Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Health. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.038) 
Market Capitalization
9.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0518
Return On Equity
0.12
The market value of Universal Health Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Universal Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.