Amerco Stock Future Price Prediction

UHAL
 Stock
  

USD 66.84  0.11  0.16%   

Amerco stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amerco shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amerco's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amerco and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amerco's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amerco, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at Amerco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amerco based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Amerco stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amerco over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.14) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
15.74
EPS Estimate Current Year
60.3
Wall Street Target Price
67.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
20.62
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.023
Using Amerco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amerco from the perspective of Amerco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amerco using Amerco's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amerco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amerco's stock price.
Amerco Cash and Equivalents Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated at 3.02. Return on Investment is expected to hike to 16.10 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 22.61.

Amerco Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Amerco's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Amerco. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Amerco stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Amerco may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amerco and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amerco with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
53.91
Short Percent
0.0053
Short Ratio
0.68
Shares Short Prior Month
249.4 K
50 Day MA
54.45
Shares Short
280.2 K

Amerco Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Amerco's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Amerco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amerco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amerco. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amerco's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amerco.

Amerco Implied Volatility

    
  20.6  
Amerco's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amerco stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amerco's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amerco stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amerco's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amerco. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amerco to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amerco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amerco after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 57.78  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amerco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amerco in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
56.97188.19190.59
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
556.00556.00556.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
60.7560.7560.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amerco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amerco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amerco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amerco.

Amerco After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amerco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amerco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amerco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amerco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amerco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amerco's historical news coverage. Amerco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.38 and 69.63, respectively. We have considered Amerco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 66.84
57.78
After-hype Price
69.63
Upside
Amerco is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amerco is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amerco Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Amerco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amerco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amerco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.41  2.40   210.86   0.21  6 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
66.8457.788.72 
0.47  

Amerco Hype Timeline

Amerco is at this time traded for 66.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -210.86 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. Amerco is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 57.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 0.47%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -8.72% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Amerco is about 474.07% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 67.05. About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.91. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Amerco recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.54. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of September 2022. The firm had 10:1 split on the 10th of November 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Also, please take a look at Amerco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amerco Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amerco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amerco's future price movements. Getting to know how Amerco rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amerco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BUDAnheuser Busch Inbev(0.17) 6 per month 1.53  0.13  3.45 (2.77)  8.01 
BUDFFAnheuser-Busch InBev SANV(4.17) 28 per month 1.49  0.12  3.65 (2.86)  7.80 
ETSYEtsy Inc(1.04) 8 per month 3.73  0.09  6.13 (6.32)  20.97 
LINLinde PLC(3.16) 4 per month 1.24  0.11  3.81 (2.02)  7.54 
AXPAmerican Express 10.20 8 per month 1.77 (0.0137)  3.88 (3.11)  8.22 
IBMInternational Business Machines(1.51) 9 per month 1.11  0.1  2.79 (2.32)  6.45 
BAThe Boeing 4.56 11 per month 3.18  0.0467  4.65 (5.37)  14.69 
KOCoca-Cola Co(0.66) 6 per month 1.17 (0.0104)  2.40 (1.60)  5.09 

Amerco Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amerco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amerco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amerco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amerco Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amerco stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amerco, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amerco based on analysis of Amerco hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amerco's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amerco's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.090.961.02
Interest Coverage3.355.99.8

Story Coverage note for Amerco

The number of cover stories for Amerco depends on current market conditions and Amerco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amerco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amerco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amerco Short Properties

Amerco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amerco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amerco often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amerco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amerco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding196077880.00
Cash And Short Term Investments2704137000.00
Also, please take a look at Amerco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amerco information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amerco's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Amerco Stock analysis

When running Amerco price analysis, check to measure Amerco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amerco is operating at the current time. Most of Amerco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amerco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amerco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amerco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amerco's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amerco. If investors know Amerco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amerco listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Market Capitalization
13.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.023
Return On Assets
0.0576
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Amerco is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amerco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amerco's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amerco's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amerco's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amerco's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amerco's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amerco value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amerco's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.