Timken Stock Future Price Prediction

TKR
 Stock
  

USD 73.83  0.84  1.12%   

Timken Company stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Timken shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Timken's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Timken and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Timken's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Timken Company, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Timken Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Timken based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Timken stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Timken over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.035
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.06
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.9
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.64
Wall Street Target Price
75.3
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.33
Using Timken hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Timken Company from the perspective of Timken response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Timken using Timken's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Timken using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Timken's stock price.
Timken Quick Ratio is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Timken reported last year Quick Ratio of 1.09. As of 12/04/2022, Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets is likely to grow to 29.52, while PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 3.57.

Timken Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Timken's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Timken. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Timken stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Timken may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Timken and may potentially protect profits, hedge Timken with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
62.74
Short Percent
0.0241
Short Ratio
2.48
Shares Short Prior Month
1.6 M
50 Day MA
68.17
Shares Short
1.6 M

Timken Company Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Timken's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Timken. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Timken can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Timken Company. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Timken's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Timken.

Timken Implied Volatility

    
  21.15  
Timken's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Timken Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Timken's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Timken stock will not fluctuate a lot when Timken's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Timken. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Timken to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Timken because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Timken after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 73.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Timken's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Timken in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
66.4580.4182.51
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
72.0085.33100.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.784.844.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Timken. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Timken's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Timken's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Timken Company.

Timken After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Timken at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Timken or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Timken, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Timken Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Timken's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Timken's historical news coverage. Timken's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 71.66 and 75.86, respectively. We have considered Timken's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 73.83
73.76
After-hype Price
75.86
Upside
Timken is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Timken Company is based on 3 months time horizon.

Timken Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Timken is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Timken backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Timken, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.25  2.10   0.07    0.04  4 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
73.8373.760.09 
724.14  

Timken Hype Timeline

On the 4th of December Timken Company is traded for 73.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Timken is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 73.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.09% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Timken is about 1200.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 73.79. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Timken was at this time reported as 28.78. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.96. Timken Company last dividend was issued on the 18th of November 2022. The entity had 1397:1000 split on the 1st of July 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Additionally, take a look at Timken Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Timken Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Timken's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Timken's future price movements. Getting to know how Timken rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Timken may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Timken Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Timken price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Timken using various technical indicators. When you analyze Timken charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Timken Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Timken stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Timken Company, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Timken based on analysis of Timken hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Timken's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Timken's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.880.670.610.53
Interest Coverage7.687.129.0811.94

Story Coverage note for Timken

The number of cover stories for Timken depends on current market conditions and Timken's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Timken is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Timken's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Timken Short Properties

Timken's future price predictability will typically decrease when Timken's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Timken Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Timken's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Timken's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76401366.00
Cash And Short Term Investments257100000.00
Additionally, take a look at Timken Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Timken Company price analysis, check to measure Timken's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Timken is operating at the current time. Most of Timken's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Timken's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Timken's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Timken to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Timken's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Timken. If investors know Timken will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Timken listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.035
Market Capitalization
5.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.096
Return On Assets
0.074
Return On Equity
0.17
The market value of Timken Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Timken that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Timken's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Timken's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Timken's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Timken's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Timken's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Timken value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Timken's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.