Toronto Stock Future Price Prediction

TD
 Stock
  

USD 64.48  0.29  0.45%   

Toronto Dominion Bank stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Toronto Dominion shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Toronto Dominion's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Toronto Dominion Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Toronto Dominion based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Toronto stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Toronto Dominion over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.04
Wall Street Target Price
82.94
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Using Toronto Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toronto Dominion Bank from the perspective of Toronto Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toronto Dominion using Toronto Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toronto using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toronto Dominion's stock price.

Toronto Dominion Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Toronto Dominion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Toronto. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Toronto Dominion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Toronto Dominion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toronto Dominion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toronto Dominion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
74.28
Short Percent
0.004
Short Ratio
19.63
Shares Short Prior Month
18 M
50 Day MA
67.19
Shares Short
45.3 M
Beta
0.89

Toronto Dominion Bank Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Toronto Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Toronto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toronto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toronto Dominion Bank. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toronto Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toronto Dominion.

Toronto Dominion Implied Volatility

    
  16.86  
Toronto Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toronto Dominion Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toronto Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toronto Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toronto Dominion's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Toronto Dominion. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toronto Dominion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toronto because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Toronto Dominion after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 64.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toronto contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toronto Dominion Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.05% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Toronto Dominion trading at $64.48, that is roughly $0.68. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toronto Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toronto Dominion Bank options at the current volatility level of 16.86%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Toronto Dominion in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
57.3858.9271.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
61.4062.9464.48
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0051.5056.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.843.883.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Toronto Dominion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Toronto Dominion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Toronto Dominion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Toronto Dominion Bank.

Toronto Dominion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Toronto Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toronto Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Toronto Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Toronto Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Toronto Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toronto Dominion's historical news coverage. Toronto Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.14 and 66.22, respectively. We have considered Toronto Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 64.48
64.68
After-hype Price
66.22
Upside
Toronto Dominion is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toronto Dominion Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.

Toronto Dominion Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Toronto Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toronto Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toronto Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13  1.55   0.11    0.06  6 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
64.4864.680.14 
189.02  

Toronto Dominion Hype Timeline

As of August 9, 2022 Toronto Dominion Bank is listed for 64.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Toronto is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 64.68. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 189.02%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.14% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Toronto Dominion is about 350.28% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 64.42. About 55.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.25. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toronto Dominion Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.94. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.05. The firm next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 7th of July 2022. Toronto Dominion had 2:1 split on the 3rd of February 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 6 days.
Additionally, take a look at Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Toronto Dominion Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Toronto Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toronto Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Toronto Dominion rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toronto Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Toronto Dominion Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Toronto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toronto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toronto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Toronto Dominion Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toronto Dominion Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion based on analysis of Toronto Dominion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toronto Dominion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toronto Dominion's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Toronto Dominion

The number of cover stories for Toronto Dominion depends on current market conditions and Toronto Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toronto Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toronto Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Toronto Dominion Short Properties

Toronto Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Toronto Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toronto Dominion Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toronto Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toronto Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.51%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.16
Float Shares1.76B
Shares Short Prior Month17.97M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.71M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.23M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.90%
Additionally, take a look at Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Toronto Dominion Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toronto Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

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When running Toronto Dominion Bank price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toronto Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toronto Dominion. If investors know Toronto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toronto Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.04
Market Capitalization
116.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.0085
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Toronto Dominion Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toronto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toronto Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toronto Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toronto Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toronto Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toronto Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Toronto Dominion value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toronto Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.