Spectrum Stock Future Price Prediction

SPB
 Stock
  

USD 49.80  0.36  0.73%   

Spectrum Brands Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Spectrum Brands shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Spectrum Brands' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Spectrum Brands and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Spectrum Brands' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Spectrum Brands Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Spectrum Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Spectrum Brands based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Spectrum stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Spectrum Brands over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.69) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.03) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.46
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.56
Wall Street Target Price
86.14
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.57
Using Spectrum Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Spectrum Brands Holdings from the perspective of Spectrum Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Spectrum Brands using Spectrum Brands' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Spectrum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Spectrum Brands' stock price.
Spectrum Brands Interest Coverage is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 0.96. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 3.75, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is forecasted to decline to 21.58.

Spectrum Brands Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Spectrum Brands' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Spectrum. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Spectrum Brands stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Spectrum Brands may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Spectrum Brands and may potentially protect profits, hedge Spectrum Brands with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
71.87
Short Percent
0.0461
Short Ratio
2.76
Shares Short Prior Month
1.2 M
50 Day MA
44.9
Shares Short
1.6 M

Spectrum Brands Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Spectrum Brands' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Spectrum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Spectrum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Spectrum Brands Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Spectrum Brands' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Spectrum Brands.

Spectrum Brands Implied Volatility

    
  41.16  
Spectrum Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Spectrum Brands Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Spectrum Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Spectrum Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Spectrum Brands' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Spectrum Brands. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Spectrum Brands to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Spectrum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Spectrum Brands after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 49.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Spectrum contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Spectrum Brands Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.57% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Spectrum Brands trading at $49.8, that is roughly $1.28. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Spectrum Brands' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Spectrum Brands Holdings options at the current volatility level of 41.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Spectrum Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Spectrum Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.8266.6770.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
48.4252.2356.03
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
102.00117.17125.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.443.443.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Spectrum Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Spectrum Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Spectrum Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Spectrum Brands Holdings.

Spectrum Brands After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Spectrum Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Spectrum Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Spectrum Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Spectrum Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Spectrum Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Spectrum Brands' historical news coverage. Spectrum Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.34 and 52.96, respectively. We have considered Spectrum Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 49.80
49.15
After-hype Price
52.96
Upside
Spectrum Brands is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Spectrum Brands Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Spectrum Brands Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Spectrum Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Spectrum Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Spectrum Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.35  3.81   0.65    0.18  6 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
49.8049.151.31 
205.95  

Spectrum Brands Hype Timeline

On the 27th of November Spectrum Brands Holdings is traded for 49.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.65 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Spectrum is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 49.15. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -1.31% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Spectrum Brands is about 755.95% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 49.62. About 103.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Spectrum Brands Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of August 2022. The firm had a split on the 16th of July 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days.
Additionally, take a look at Spectrum Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Spectrum Brands Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Spectrum Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Spectrum Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Spectrum Brands rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Spectrum Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AANAarons Holdings 0.09 7 per month 0.00 (0.0387)  5.89 (6.28)  33.16 
BABAAlibaba Group Holding(2.01) 7 per month 0.00 (0.08)  7.80 (4.90)  20.48 
BBBYBed Bath Beyond 0.15 9 per month 0.00 (0.21)  9.60 (9.29)  46.07 
BBYBest Buy Company(0.55) 7 per month 3.14  0.0205  3.81 (5.17)  15.60 
BIGBig Lots 1.00 3 per month 0.00 (0.0365)  8.27 (9.69)  26.27 
CASYCaseys General Stor 2.65 7 per month 1.12  0.06  2.81 (1.85)  6.32 
COSTCostco Wholesale(1.85) 8 per month 0.00 (0.0426)  2.98 (3.29)  7.49 
DDSDillards(1.75) 6 per month 2.54  0.09  4.82 (5.26)  18.29 
DGDollar General Corp(1.80) 9 per month 1.24  0.0016  2.72 (2.30)  6.67 
DLTRDollar Tree(0.97) 7 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.48 (4.97)  13.11 

Spectrum Brands Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Spectrum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Spectrum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Spectrum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Spectrum Brands Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Spectrum Brands stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Spectrum Brands Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Spectrum Brands based on analysis of Spectrum Brands hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Spectrum Brands's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Spectrum Brands's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.751.692.783.75
Interest Coverage1.870.830.961.16

Story Coverage note for Spectrum Brands

The number of cover stories for Spectrum Brands depends on current market conditions and Spectrum Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Spectrum Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Spectrum Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Spectrum Brands Short Properties

Spectrum Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Spectrum Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Spectrum Brands Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Spectrum Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spectrum Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.45%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.68
Short Percent Of Float4.01%
Float Shares39.98M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day711.44k
Shares Short Prior Month1.34M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month626.71k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.45%
Additionally, take a look at Spectrum Brands Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Spectrum Brands Holdings price analysis, check to measure Spectrum Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spectrum Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Spectrum Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spectrum Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spectrum Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spectrum Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Spectrum Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Spectrum Brands. If investors know Spectrum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Spectrum Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.69) 
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.011) 
Return On Assets
0.0076
Return On Equity
(0.06) 
The market value of Spectrum Brands Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Spectrum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Spectrum Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Spectrum Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Spectrum Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Spectrum Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Spectrum Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Spectrum Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Spectrum Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.