Scotts Stock Future Price Prediction

SMG
 Stock
  

USD 55.93  2.38  4.44%   

Scotts Miracle-Gro stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Scotts Miracle-Gro shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Scotts Miracle-Gro's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Scotts Miracle-Gro's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Scotts Miracle-Gro, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Scotts Miracle-Gro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Scotts stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Scotts Miracle-Gro over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.09) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(1.07) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.14
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.17
Wall Street Target Price
57.13
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(1.97) 
Using Scotts Miracle-Gro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Scotts Miracle-Gro from the perspective of Scotts Miracle-Gro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Scotts Miracle-Gro using Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Scotts using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock price.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Inventory Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 4.55. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 15.52, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is forecasted to decline to 1.82.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Scotts Miracle-Gro's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Scotts. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Scotts Miracle-Gro stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Scotts Miracle-Gro may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Scotts Miracle-Gro and may potentially protect profits, hedge Scotts Miracle-Gro with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
85.27
Short Percent
0.0924
Short Ratio
3.56
Shares Short Prior Month
3.5 M
50 Day MA
49.66
Shares Short
3.8 M

Scotts Miracle-Gro Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Scotts Miracle-Gro's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Scotts. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Scotts can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Scotts Miracle-Gro. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Scotts Miracle-Gro's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Implied Volatility

    
  52.67  
Scotts Miracle-Gro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Scotts Miracle-Gro stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Scotts Miracle-Gro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Scotts Miracle-Gro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Scotts Miracle-Gro's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Scotts Miracle-Gro. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Scotts Miracle-Gro to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Scotts because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Scotts Miracle-Gro after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 55.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Scotts contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Scotts Miracle-Gro will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.29% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Scotts Miracle-Gro trading at USD55.93, that is roughly USD1.84. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Scotts Miracle-Gro's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Scotts Miracle-Gro options at the current volatility level of 52.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Scotts Miracle-Gro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Scotts Miracle-Gro in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
50.3490.4094.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
46.0249.9153.80
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
170.00197.14225.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
7.808.388.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Scotts Miracle-Gro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Scotts Miracle-Gro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Scotts Miracle-Gro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Scotts Miracle-Gro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Scotts Miracle-Gro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Scotts Miracle-Gro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Scotts Miracle-Gro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Scotts Miracle-Gro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Scotts Miracle-Gro's historical news coverage. Scotts Miracle-Gro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.00 and 59.78, respectively. We have considered Scotts Miracle-Gro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 55.93
55.89
After-hype Price
59.78
Upside
Scotts Miracle-Gro is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Scotts Miracle-Gro is based on 3 months time horizon.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Scotts Miracle-Gro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Scotts Miracle-Gro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Scotts Miracle-Gro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05  3.91   0.02   0.01  10 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
55.9355.890.07 
814.58  

Scotts Miracle-Gro Hype Timeline

On the 1st of December Scotts Miracle-Gro is traded for 55.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Scotts is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 55.89. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.07% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Scotts Miracle-Gro is about 1358.69% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 55.94. About 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.07. Scotts Miracle-Gro recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of November 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of November 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days.
Additionally, take a look at Scotts Miracle-Gro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Scotts Miracle-Gro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Scotts Miracle-Gro's future price movements. Getting to know how Scotts Miracle-Gro rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Scotts Miracle-Gro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co(2.16) 4 per month 1.27  0.13  4.20 (2.15)  7.57 
CATCaterpillar 1.74 8 per month 1.48  0.12  4.36 (2.70)  9.57 
GSGoldman Sachs Group 8.09 4 per month 1.51  0.1  3.98 (2.43)  7.56 
AMRKAmark Preci(0.34) 6 per month 4.22 (0.0061)  4.73 (6.21)  17.89 
JWNNordstrom(0.20) 8 per month 3.46  0.07  6.12 (6.10)  16.27 
CVXChevron Corp(1.64) 7 per month 1.95  0.06  3.37 (2.91)  9.61 
TRIThomson Reuters Corp 0.64 9 per month 1.31  0.025  2.64 (2.52)  6.99 
UAUnder Armour 0.00 0 per month 3.50  0.0493  6.38 (6.16)  14.32 
ULTAUlta Beauty(3.54) 4 per month 1.71  0.06  3.33 (2.33)  8.45 

Scotts Miracle-Gro Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Scotts price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Scotts using various technical indicators. When you analyze Scotts charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Scotts Miracle-Gro Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Scotts Miracle-Gro stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Scotts Miracle-Gro, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro based on analysis of Scotts Miracle-Gro hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Scotts Miracle-Gro's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Scotts Miracle-Gro's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity2.092.211.991.82
Interest Coverage7.359.168.256.85

Story Coverage note for Scotts Miracle-Gro

The number of cover stories for Scotts Miracle-Gro depends on current market conditions and Scotts Miracle-Gro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Scotts Miracle-Gro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Scotts Miracle-Gro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Short Properties

Scotts Miracle-Gro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Scotts Miracle-Gro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Scotts Miracle-Gro often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Scotts Miracle-Gro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Scotts Miracle-Gro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding57200000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments86800000.00
Additionally, take a look at Scotts Miracle-Gro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Scotts Miracle-Gro price analysis, check to measure Scotts Miracle-Gro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Scotts Miracle-Gro is operating at the current time. Most of Scotts Miracle-Gro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Scotts Miracle-Gro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Scotts Miracle-Gro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Scotts Miracle-Gro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Scotts Miracle-Gro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Scotts Miracle-Gro. If investors know Scotts will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Scotts Miracle-Gro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.09) 
Market Capitalization
3.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.33) 
Return On Assets
0.0576
Return On Equity
(0.75) 
The market value of Scotts Miracle-Gro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Scotts that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Scotts Miracle-Gro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Scotts Miracle-Gro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Scotts Miracle-Gro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Scotts Miracle-Gro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Scotts Miracle-Gro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Scotts Miracle-Gro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Scotts Miracle-Gro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.