Shopify Stock Future Price Prediction

SHOP
 Stock
  

USD 37.15  0.88  2.31%   

Shopify stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Shopify shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Shopify's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Shopify and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Shopify's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Shopify, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Shopify Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Shopify based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Shopify stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Shopify over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
4.86
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.05) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.05) 
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.04
Wall Street Target Price
40.65
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.10) 
Using Shopify hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shopify from the perspective of Shopify response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Shopify using Shopify's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Shopify using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Shopify's stock price.

Shopify Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Shopify's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Shopify. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Shopify stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Shopify may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Shopify and may potentially protect profits, hedge Shopify with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
42.2
Short Percent
0.0516
Short Ratio
1.19
Shares Short Prior Month
41.5 M
50 Day MA
31.52
Shares Short
36.3 M

Shopify Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Shopify's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Shopify. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Shopify can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Shopify. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Shopify's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Shopify.

Shopify Implied Volatility

    
  92.73  
Shopify's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shopify stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shopify's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shopify stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shopify's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Shopify. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Shopify to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Shopify because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Shopify after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 36.36  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Shopify contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Shopify will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.8% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Shopify trading at $37.15, that is roughly $2.15. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Shopify's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Shopify options at the current volatility level of 92.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shopify's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shopify in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.4446.9452.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
31.7636.9942.22
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0059.0775.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.47-0.42-0.37
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shopify. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shopify's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shopify's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shopify.

Shopify After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Shopify at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shopify or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shopify, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Shopify Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Shopify's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shopify's historical news coverage. Shopify's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.13 and 41.59, respectively. We have considered Shopify's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 37.15
36.36
After-hype Price
41.59
Upside
Shopify is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shopify is based on 3 months time horizon.

Shopify Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Shopify is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shopify backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shopify, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.38  5.24   0.71   0.20  8 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
37.1536.362.13 
280.21  

Shopify Hype Timeline

Shopify is at this time traded for 37.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.71 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.2. Shopify is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 36.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -2.13% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.38%. The volatility of related hype on Shopify is about 977.61% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 37.35. About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 282.85. Shopify had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1.00 - 10.00 split on the 29th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally, take a look at Shopify Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Shopify Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Shopify's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shopify's future price movements. Getting to know how Shopify rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shopify may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Shopify Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Shopify price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shopify using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shopify charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Shopify Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Shopify stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Shopify, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Shopify based on analysis of Shopify hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Shopify's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Shopify's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Shopify

The number of cover stories for Shopify depends on current market conditions and Shopify's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shopify is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shopify's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Shopify Short Properties

Shopify's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shopify's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shopify often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shopify's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shopify's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.28%
Short Percent Of Float5.93%
Float Shares1.19B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day20.93M
Shares Short Prior Month48.88M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month27.85M
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022
Additionally, take a look at Shopify Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Shopify price analysis, check to measure Shopify's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shopify is operating at the current time. Most of Shopify's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shopify's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shopify's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shopify to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Shopify's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shopify. If investors know Shopify will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shopify listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
4.86
Market Capitalization
48 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.22
Return On Assets
(0.0199) 
Return On Equity
(0.32) 
The market value of Shopify is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shopify that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shopify's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shopify's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shopify's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shopify's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shopify's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shopify value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shopify's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.