PROG Holdings Stock Future Price Prediction

PRG
 Stock
  

USD 18.43  0.60  3.15%   

PROG Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of PROG Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of PROG Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PROG Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PROG Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PROG Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check PROG Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of PROG Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The PROG Holdings stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on PROG Holdings over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.63) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.8
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.36
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.55
Wall Street Target Price
24.4
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.64
Using PROG Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PROG Holdings from the perspective of PROG Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PROG Holdings using PROG Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PROG Holdings using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PROG Holdings' stock price.
PROG Holdings Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.87. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 31.06, whereas Return on Investment is forecasted to decline to 24.21.

PROG Holdings Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in PROG Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PROG Holdings. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PROG Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long PROG Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PROG Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge PROG Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
22.0159
Short Percent
0.0729
Short Ratio
2.56
Shares Short Prior Month
3.7 M
50 Day MA
16.8266
Shares Short
2.6 M

PROG Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to PROG Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in PROG Holdings. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PROG Holdings can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PROG Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PROG Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PROG Holdings.

PROG Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  81.37  
PROG Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PROG Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PROG Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PROG Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when PROG Holdings' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in PROG Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PROG Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PROG Holdings because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

PROG Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of PROG Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of PROG Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.5928.8832.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
14.3418.3422.35
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.0064.0085.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.973.983.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PROG Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PROG Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PROG Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in PROG Holdings.

PROG Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PROG Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PROG Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PROG Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

PROG Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PROG Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PROG Holdings' historical news coverage. PROG Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.43 and 22.43, respectively. We have considered PROG Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 18.43
18.43
After-hype Price
22.43
Upside
PROG Holdings is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PROG Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

PROG Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as PROG Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PROG Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PROG Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01  4.03  0.00   0.01  9 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.4318.430.00 
3,358  

PROG Holdings Hype Timeline

On the 7th of December PROG Holdings is traded for 18.43. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. PROG Holdings projected not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis projected to be very small whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to PROG Holdings is about 559.72%. The volatility of related hype on PROG Holdings is about 559.72% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 18.44. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.75. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PROG Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.31. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of November 2020. The firm had 1179:1000 split on the 1st of December 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Please check PROG Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

PROG Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PROG Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PROG Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how PROG Holdings rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PROG Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

PROG Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PROG Holdings price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PROG Holdings using various technical indicators. When you analyze PROG Holdings charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About PROG Holdings Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of PROG Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PROG Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PROG Holdings based on analysis of PROG Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PROG Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PROG Holdings's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.20.05070.870.94
Interest Coverage6.981.45 K62.6698.18

Story Coverage note for PROG Holdings

The number of cover stories for PROG Holdings depends on current market conditions and PROG Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PROG Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PROG Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

PROG Holdings Short Properties

PROG Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when PROG Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PROG Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PROG Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PROG Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding66416000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments170159000.00
Please check PROG Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running PROG Holdings price analysis, check to measure PROG Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PROG Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of PROG Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PROG Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PROG Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PROG Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PROG Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PROG Holdings. If investors know PROG Holdings will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PROG Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.63) 
Market Capitalization
922.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.038) 
Return On Assets
0.169
Return On Equity
0.1223
The market value of PROG Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PROG Holdings that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PROG Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PROG Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PROG Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PROG Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PROG Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine PROG Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PROG Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.