Progressive Stock Future Price Prediction

PGR -  USA Stock  

USD 110.99  0.57  0.52%

Progressive Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Progressive Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Progressive Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Progressive Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Progressive Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Progressive Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Progressive Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Progressive Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Progressive stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Progressive Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Progressive Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Progressive Corp from the perspective of Progressive Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Progressive Corp using Progressive Corp's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Progressive using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Progressive Corp's stock price.

Progressive Corp Implied Volatility

    
  18.38  
Progressive Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Progressive Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Progressive Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Progressive Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Progressive Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Progressive Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Progressive Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Progressive because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Progressive Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 109.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Progressive Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Progressive Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
98.50114.57116.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
108.40110.22112.04
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
82.0099.00134.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.453.593.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Progressive Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Progressive Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Progressive Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Progressive Corp.

Progressive Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Progressive Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Progressive Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Progressive Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Progressive Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Progressive Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Progressive Corp's historical news coverage. Progressive Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 107.55 and 111.19, respectively. We have considered Progressive Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 110.99
107.55
Downside
109.37
After-hype Price
111.19
Upside
Progressive Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Progressive Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Progressive Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Progressive Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Progressive Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Progressive Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.06  1.82   0.07    0.03  10 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
110.99109.370.06 
165.45  

Progressive Corp Hype Timeline

On the 20th of May Progressive Corp is traded for 110.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Progressive is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 109.37. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 165.45%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.06% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Progressive Corp is about 325.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 110.96. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Progressive Corp was at this time reported as 30.88. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.88. Progressive Corp next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 6th of April 2022. The entity had 1:1 split on the 27th of January 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Please check Progressive Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Progressive Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Progressive Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Progressive Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Progressive Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Progressive Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Progressive Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Progressive price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Progressive using various technical indicators. When you analyze Progressive charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Progressive Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Progressive Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Progressive Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Progressive Corp based on analysis of Progressive Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Progressive Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Progressive Corp's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Progressive Corp

The number of cover stories for Progressive Corp depends on current market conditions and Progressive Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Progressive Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Progressive Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Progressive Corp Short Properties

Progressive Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Progressive Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Progressive Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Progressive Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Progressive Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.23%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.90
Short Percent Of Float1.23%
Float Shares582.67M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.08M
Shares Short Prior Month7.95M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.66M
Date Short Interest15th of February 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.50%
Please check Progressive Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running Progressive Corp price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Progressive Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.