Performance Stock Future Price Prediction

PFGC
 Stock
  

USD 58.83  0.13  0.22%   

Performance Food stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Performance Food shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Performance Food's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Performance Food and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Performance Food's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Performance Food Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Performance Food Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Performance Food based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Performance stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Performance Food over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
19.67
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.63
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.51
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.23
Wall Street Target Price
68.47
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.8
Using Performance Food hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Performance Food Group from the perspective of Performance Food response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Performance Food using Performance Food's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Performance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Performance Food's stock price.
Performance Food Enterprise Value over EBITDA is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Enterprise Value over EBITDA was at 15.73. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 20.51, whereas Book Value per Share is forecasted to decline to 11.43.

Performance Food Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Performance Food's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Performance. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Performance Food stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Performance Food may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Performance Food and may potentially protect profits, hedge Performance Food with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
49.18
Short Percent
0.0215
Short Ratio
2.47
Shares Short Prior Month
4.6 M
50 Day MA
49.94
Shares Short
2.9 M

Performance Food Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Performance Food's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Performance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Performance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Performance Food Group. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Performance Food's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Performance Food.

Performance Food Implied Volatility

    
  26.19  
Performance Food's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Performance Food Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Performance Food's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Performance Food stock will not fluctuate a lot when Performance Food's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Performance Food. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Performance Food to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Performance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Performance Food after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 59.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Performance contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Performance Food Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.64% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Performance Food trading at $58.83, that is roughly $0.96. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Performance Food's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Performance Food Group options at the current volatility level of 26.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Performance Food's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Performance Food in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
52.9562.2264.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
57.4859.6561.83
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
57.0061.7164.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.422.452.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Performance Food. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Performance Food's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Performance Food's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Performance Food.

Performance Food After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Performance Food at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Performance Food or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Performance Food, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Performance Food Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Performance Food's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Performance Food's historical news coverage. Performance Food's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.82 and 61.18, respectively. We have considered Performance Food's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 58.83
59.00
After-hype Price
61.18
Upside
Performance Food is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Performance Food is based on 3 months time horizon.

Performance Food Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Performance Food is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Performance Food backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Performance Food, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.29  2.18  0.17   0.07  5 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
58.8359.000.29 
375.86  

Performance Food Hype Timeline

Performance Food is at this time traded for 58.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Performance is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 59.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.29% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Performance Food is about 934.29% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 58.9. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 47.19 B. Net Income was 112.5 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.26 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Please check Performance Food Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Performance Food Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Performance Food's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Performance Food's future price movements. Getting to know how Performance Food rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Performance Food may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Performance Food Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Performance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Performance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Performance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Performance Food Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Performance Food stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Performance Food Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Performance Food based on analysis of Performance Food hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Performance Food's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Performance Food's related companies.
 2010 2017 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.391.31.23
Interest Coverage3.841.793.15

Story Coverage note for Performance Food

The number of cover stories for Performance Food depends on current market conditions and Performance Food's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Performance Food is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Performance Food's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Performance Food Short Properties

Performance Food's future price predictability will typically decrease when Performance Food's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Performance Food Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Performance Food's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Performance Food's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.97%
Short Percent Of Float3.42%
Float Shares152.02M
Shares Short Prior Month4.91M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.16M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.02M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Please check Performance Food Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Performance Food information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Performance Food's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Performance Stock analysis

When running Performance Food price analysis, check to measure Performance Food's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Performance Food is operating at the current time. Most of Performance Food's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Performance Food's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Performance Food's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Performance Food to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Performance Food's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Performance Food. If investors know Performance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Performance Food listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
19.67
Market Capitalization
9.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.39
Return On Assets
0.0248
Return On Equity
0.0624
The market value of Performance Food is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Performance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Performance Food's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Performance Food's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Performance Food's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Performance Food's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Performance Food's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Performance Food value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Performance Food's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.