Occidental Stock Future Price Prediction

OXY
 Stock
  

USD 66.17  2.11  3.29%   

Occidental Petroleum Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Occidental Petroleum shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Occidental Petroleum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Occidental Petroleum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Occidental Petroleum Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Occidental Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Occidental Petroleum based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Occidental stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Occidental Petroleum over a specific investment horizon.Using Occidental Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Occidental Petroleum Corp from the perspective of Occidental Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Occidental Petroleum using Occidental Petroleum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Occidental using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Occidental Petroleum's stock price.

Occidental Petroleum Implied Volatility

    
  68.53  
Occidental Petroleum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Occidental Petroleum Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Occidental Petroleum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Occidental Petroleum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Occidental Petroleum's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Occidental Petroleum. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Occidental Petroleum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Occidental because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Occidental Petroleum after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 66.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Occidental contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Occidental Petroleum Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.28% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Occidental Petroleum trading at $66.17, that is roughly $2.83. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Occidental Petroleum's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Occidental Petroleum Corp options at the current volatility level of 68.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Occidental Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Occidental Petroleum in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.3754.4872.90
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0039.3555.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Occidental Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Occidental Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Occidental Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Occidental Petroleum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Occidental Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Occidental Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Occidental Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Occidental Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Occidental Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Occidental Petroleum's historical news coverage. Occidental Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.32 and 69.54, respectively. We have considered Occidental Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 66.17
66.43
After-hype Price
69.54
Upside
Occidental Petroleum is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Occidental Petroleum Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Occidental Petroleum Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Occidental Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Occidental Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Occidental Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.22  3.13  0.20    0.59  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
66.1766.430.24 
336.56  

Occidental Petroleum Hype Timeline

On the 4th of October Occidental Petroleum Corp is traded for 66.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.59. Occidental is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 66.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.24% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Occidental Petroleum is about 116.79% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 65.58. The company reported the last year's revenue of 29.01 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.52 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.3 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please check Occidental Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Occidental Petroleum Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Occidental Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Occidental Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Occidental Petroleum rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Occidental Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.41  0.08  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Occidental Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Occidental price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Occidental using various technical indicators. When you analyze Occidental charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Occidental Petroleum Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Occidental Petroleum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Occidental Petroleum Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Occidental Petroleum based on analysis of Occidental Petroleum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Occidental Petroleum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Occidental Petroleum's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Occidental Petroleum

The number of cover stories for Occidental Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Occidental Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Occidental Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Occidental Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Occidental Petroleum Short Properties

Occidental Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Occidental Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Occidental Petroleum Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Occidental Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Occidental Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out6.10%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.82
Short Percent Of Float11.29%
Float Shares934.93M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day23.4M
Shares Short Prior Month53.65M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month24.81M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.33%
Please check Occidental Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Occidental Petroleum Corp price analysis, check to measure Occidental Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Occidental Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Occidental Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Occidental Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Occidental Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Occidental Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Occidental Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Occidental Petroleum. If investors know Occidental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Occidental Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Occidental Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Occidental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Occidental Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Occidental Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Occidental Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Occidental Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Occidental Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Occidental Petroleum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Occidental Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.