Ollies Stock Future Price Prediction

OLLI
 Stock
  

USD 47.66  10.09  17.47%   

Ollies Bargain Outlet stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ollies Bargain shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ollies Bargain's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ollies Bargain and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ollies Bargain's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ollies Bargain Outlet, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Ollies Bargain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ollies Bargain based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ollies stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ollies Bargain over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.026
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.33
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.36
Wall Street Target Price
57.2
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.09
Using Ollies Bargain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ollies Bargain Outlet from the perspective of Ollies Bargain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ollies Bargain using Ollies Bargain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ollies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ollies Bargain's stock price.

Ollies Bargain Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Ollies Bargain's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ollies. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ollies Bargain stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ollies Bargain may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ollies Bargain and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ollies Bargain with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
54.2801
Short Percent
0.2131
Short Ratio
7.69
Shares Short Prior Month
7.8 M
50 Day MA
55.5556
Shares Short
8.3 M

Ollies Bargain Outlet Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ollies Bargain's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Ollies. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ollies can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ollies Bargain Outlet. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ollies Bargain's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ollies Bargain.

Ollies Bargain Implied Volatility

    
  75.09  
Ollies Bargain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ollies Bargain Outlet stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ollies Bargain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ollies Bargain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ollies Bargain's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ollies Bargain. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ollies Bargain to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ollies because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ollies Bargain after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 51.74  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ollies contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ollies Bargain Outlet will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.69% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Ollies Bargain trading at USD47.66, that is roughly USD2.24. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ollies Bargain's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ollies Bargain Outlet options at the current volatility level of 75.09%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ollies Bargain's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ollies Bargain in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
50.5954.7158.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
45.4049.5253.64
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0066.2098.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.322.332.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ollies Bargain. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ollies Bargain's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ollies Bargain's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ollies Bargain Outlet.

Ollies Bargain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ollies Bargain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ollies Bargain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ollies Bargain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ollies Bargain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ollies Bargain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ollies Bargain's historical news coverage. Ollies Bargain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.62 and 55.86, respectively. We have considered Ollies Bargain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 47.66
51.74
After-hype Price
55.86
Upside
Ollies Bargain is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ollies Bargain Outlet is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ollies Bargain Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Ollies Bargain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ollies Bargain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ollies Bargain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10  4.12   0.06   0.00  1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.6651.740.12 
735.71  

Ollies Bargain Hype Timeline

Ollies Bargain Outlet is now traded for 47.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ollies is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 51.74. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.12% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Ollies Bargain is about 15178.95% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 47.66. About 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Ollies Bargain was now reported as 21.09. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.08. Ollies Bargain Outlet had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be very soon.
Please check Ollies Bargain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ollies Bargain Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ollies Bargain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ollies Bargain's future price movements. Getting to know how Ollies Bargain rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ollies Bargain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LGGNFLegal General Group 0.00 0 per month 3.78  0.0152  6.64 (6.83)  17.60 
IVSXFInvestor AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.06  3.66 (1.99)  14.86 
PFGPrincipal Financial Group(0.37) 10 per month 1.48  0.12  4.57 (2.97)  10.87 
STT-PGState Street 0.00 0 per month 0.52 (0.05)  1.40 (0.86)  2.74 
APOApollo Global Management 0.56 5 per month 2.64  0.0421  5.24 (4.25)  11.62 
LGGNYLegal General Group 0.00 0 per month 2.66  0.0269  5.15 (3.90)  13.15 
EQBBFEQT AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.0007  0.00  0.00  31.48 

Ollies Bargain Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ollies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ollies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ollies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ollies Bargain Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ollies Bargain stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ollies Bargain Outlet, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ollies Bargain based on analysis of Ollies Bargain hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ollies Bargain's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ollies Bargain's related companies.
 2010 2014 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.594.98E-40.4
Interest Coverage2.59128.51516.95

Story Coverage note for Ollies Bargain

The number of cover stories for Ollies Bargain depends on current market conditions and Ollies Bargain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ollies Bargain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ollies Bargain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ollies Bargain Short Properties

Ollies Bargain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ollies Bargain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ollies Bargain Outlet often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ollies Bargain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ollies Bargain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding64878000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments246977000.00
Please check Ollies Bargain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running Ollies Bargain Outlet price analysis, check to measure Ollies Bargain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ollies Bargain is operating at the current time. Most of Ollies Bargain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ollies Bargain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ollies Bargain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ollies Bargain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ollies Bargain's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ollies Bargain. If investors know Ollies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ollies Bargain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.026
Market Capitalization
3.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.09
Return On Assets
0.038
Return On Equity
0.0732
The market value of Ollies Bargain Outlet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ollies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ollies Bargain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ollies Bargain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ollies Bargain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ollies Bargain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ollies Bargain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ollies Bargain value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ollies Bargain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.