Old Dominion Stock Future Price Prediction

ODFL
 Stock
  

USD 312.29  2.02  0.64%   

Old Dominion Freight stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Old Dominion shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Old Dominion's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Old Dominion and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Old Dominion's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Old Dominion Freight, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Old Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Old Dominion based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Old Dominion stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Old Dominion over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.43
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.07
Wall Street Target Price
286.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
3.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.26
Using Old Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old Dominion Freight from the perspective of Old Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old Dominion using Old Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old Dominion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old Dominion's stock price.
Old Dominion Accrued Expenses Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated at 17.27. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to hike to 12.49 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 59.15.

Old Dominion Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Old Dominion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old Dominion. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old Dominion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Old Dominion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Old Dominion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Old Dominion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
300.91
Short Percent
0.0388
Short Ratio
4.51
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
270.35
Shares Short
3.9 M
Beta
1.04

Old Dominion Freight Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Old Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Old Dominion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old Dominion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old Dominion Freight. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old Dominion.

Old Dominion Implied Volatility

    
  26.88  
Old Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old Dominion Freight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old Dominion's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Old Dominion. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Old Dominion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Old Dominion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Old Dominion after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 312.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old Dominion contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old Dominion Freight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.68% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Old Dominion trading at $312.29, that is roughly $5.25. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old Dominion Freight options at the current volatility level of 26.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Old Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Old Dominion in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
281.06317.42320.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
321.40324.34327.29
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
220.00325.67380.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.688.718.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Old Dominion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Old Dominion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Old Dominion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Old Dominion Freight.

Old Dominion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Old Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Old Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Old Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old Dominion's historical news coverage. Old Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 309.71 and 315.59, respectively. We have considered Old Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 312.29
309.71
Downside
312.65
After-hype Price
315.59
Upside
Old Dominion is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old Dominion Freight is based on 3 months time horizon.

Old Dominion Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Old Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.48  2.40  2.49    0.08  7 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
312.29312.650.12 
46.24  

Old Dominion Hype Timeline

Old Dominion Freight is now traded for 312.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.49 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Old Dominion is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 312.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 46.24%. The price surge on the next news is forecasted to be 0.12% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Old Dominion is about 1445.78% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 312.21. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.98 B. Net Income was 1.24 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Please check Old Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Old Dominion Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Old Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Old Dominion rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RRyder System 0.20 8 per month 1.68  0.06  3.17 (2.69)  23.18 
UHALA M E(0.83) 8 per month 1.70  0.06  2.96 (3.02)  7.29 
UPSUnited Parcel Service 0.66 8 per month 1.71  0.09  2.62 (2.85)  7.84 
WERNWerner Enterprise 0.43 7 per month 2.12 (0.0142)  2.74 (2.93)  9.66 
BBBYBed Bath Beyond 0.12 7 per month 6.79  0.12  21.83 (9.94)  54.03 
MCDMcDonalds Corp 2.71 8 per month 1.04  0.0299  2.22 (1.55)  4.73 
AAPLApple Inc(0.1) 8 per month 2.07  0.08  3.42 (3.85)  8.84 
CSCOCisco Systems 0.57 10 per month 0.00 (0.06)  2.73 (1.61)  17.00 
PGProcter Gamble 0.17 9 per month 0.00 (0.07)  2.29 (2.67)  9.21 
BABoeing Company(5.59) 9 per month 2.47  0.11  6.45 (4.95)  16.31 

Old Dominion Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Old Dominion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old Dominion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old Dominion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Old Dominion Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Old Dominion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Old Dominion Freight, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old Dominion based on analysis of Old Dominion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Old Dominion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Old Dominion's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.02720.0279
Interest Coverage1.48 K1.6 K

Story Coverage note for Old Dominion

The number of cover stories for Old Dominion depends on current market conditions and Old Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Old Dominion Short Properties

Old Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old Dominion Freight often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.50%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.75
Short Percent Of Float3.90%
Float Shares103.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day979.27k
Shares Short Prior Month3.75M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month909.21k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.25%
Please check Old Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Old Dominion Freight information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Old Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is Old Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Dominion. If investors know Old Dominion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.43
Market Capitalization
34.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.26
Return On Assets
0.22
Return On Equity
0.36
The market value of Old Dominion Freight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old Dominion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Old Dominion value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.