Napco Stock Future Price Prediction

NSSC -  USA Stock  

USD 44.60  0.13  0.29%

Napco Sec Tech stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Napco Sec shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Napco Sec's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Napco Sec and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Napco Sec's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Napco Sec Tech, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Napco Sec Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Napco Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Napco Sec based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Napco stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Napco Sec over a specific investment horizon. Using Napco Sec hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Napco Sec Tech from the perspective of Napco Sec response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Napco Sec Interest Coverage is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 3,467. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.0167, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 12.55.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Napco Sec. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Napco Sec to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Napco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Napco Sec after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 44.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Napco Sec's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Napco Sec in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
40.1448.6151.41
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0047.5050.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.011.131.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Napco Sec. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Napco Sec's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Napco Sec's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Napco Sec Tech.

Napco Sec After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Napco Sec at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Napco Sec or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Napco Sec, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Napco Sec Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Napco Sec's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Napco Sec's historical news coverage. Napco Sec's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.09 and 47.69, respectively. We have considered Napco Sec's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
44.60
17th of October 2021
44.89
After-hype Price
47.69
Upside
Napco Sec is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Napco Sec Tech is based on 3 months time horizon.

Napco Sec Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Napco Sec is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Napco Sec backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Napco Sec, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.47  2.79  0.23   0.26  5 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
44.6044.890.65 
581.25  

Napco Sec Hype Timeline

Napco Sec Tech is now traded for 44.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Napco is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 44.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.65% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Napco Sec is about 500.45% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 44.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 114.03 M. Net Income was 14.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 50.15 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 5 days.
Additionally, see Napco Sec Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Napco Sec Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Napco Sec's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Napco Sec's future price movements. Getting to know how Napco Sec rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Napco Sec may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Napco Sec Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Napco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Napco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Napco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Napco Sec Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Napco Sec stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Napco Sec Tech, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Napco Sec based on analysis of Napco Sec hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Napco Sec's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Napco Sec's related companies.
 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.01630.0167
Interest Coverage3.47 K3.74 K

Story Coverage note for Napco Sec

The number of cover stories for Napco Sec depends on current market conditions and Napco Sec's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Napco Sec is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Napco Sec's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Napco Sec Short Properties

Napco Sec's future price predictability will typically decrease when Napco Sec's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Napco Sec Tech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Napco Sec's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Napco Sec's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.52%
Short Percent Of Float5.77%
Float Shares14.44M
Shares Short Prior Month937.47k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day42.27k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month44.05k
Date Short Interest30th of September 2021
Additionally, see Napco Sec Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Napco Sec Tech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Napco Sec's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Napco Stock analysis

When running Napco Sec Tech price analysis, check to measure Napco Sec's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Napco Sec is operating at the current time. Most of Napco Sec's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Napco Sec's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Napco Sec's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Napco Sec to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Napco Sec Tech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Napco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Napco Sec's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Napco Sec's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Napco Sec's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Napco Sec Tech underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Napco Sec's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Napco Sec value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Napco Sec's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.