Norfolk Stock Future Price Prediction

NSC
 Stock
  

USD 247.31  6.76  2.66%   

Norfolk Southern stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Norfolk Southern shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Norfolk Southern's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Norfolk Southern and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Norfolk Southern's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Norfolk Southern, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Norfolk Southern Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Norfolk Southern based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Norfolk stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Norfolk Southern over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.34
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.54
EPS Estimate Current Year
13.84
EPS Estimate Next Year
14.14
Wall Street Target Price
246.08
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
3.64
Using Norfolk Southern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norfolk Southern from the perspective of Norfolk Southern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Norfolk Southern using Norfolk Southern's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Norfolk using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Norfolk Southern's stock price.
Norfolk Southern Calculated Tax Rate is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 22.51. The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 0.41, whereas Interest Coverage is forecasted to decline to 6.27.

Norfolk Southern Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Norfolk Southern's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Norfolk. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Norfolk Southern stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Norfolk Southern may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Norfolk Southern and may potentially protect profits, hedge Norfolk Southern with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
244.8
Short Percent
0.012
Short Ratio
1.55
Shares Short Prior Month
2.3 M
50 Day MA
229.57
Shares Short
2.8 M

Norfolk Southern Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Norfolk Southern's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Norfolk. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Norfolk can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Norfolk Southern. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Norfolk Southern's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Norfolk Southern.

Norfolk Southern Implied Volatility

    
  26.38  
Norfolk Southern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Norfolk Southern stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Norfolk Southern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Norfolk Southern stock will not fluctuate a lot when Norfolk Southern's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Norfolk Southern. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Norfolk Southern to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Norfolk because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Norfolk Southern after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 247.54  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Norfolk contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Norfolk Southern will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.65% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Norfolk Southern trading at USD247.31, that is roughly USD4.08. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Norfolk Southern's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Norfolk Southern options at the current volatility level of 26.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norfolk Southern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Norfolk Southern in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
222.58267.39269.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
244.72246.69248.65
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
200.00296.00343.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
11.7212.0012.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Norfolk Southern. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Norfolk Southern's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Norfolk Southern's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Norfolk Southern.

Norfolk Southern After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Norfolk Southern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norfolk Southern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norfolk Southern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Norfolk Southern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Norfolk Southern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norfolk Southern's historical news coverage. Norfolk Southern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 245.57 and 249.51, respectively. We have considered Norfolk Southern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 247.31
245.57
Downside
247.54
After-hype Price
249.51
Upside
Norfolk Southern is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norfolk Southern is based on 3 months time horizon.

Norfolk Southern Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Norfolk Southern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norfolk Southern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norfolk Southern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.08  1.97  0.23   0.01  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
247.31247.540.09 
67.24  

Norfolk Southern Hype Timeline

On the 5th of December Norfolk Southern is traded for 247.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Norfolk is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 247.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 67.24%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Norfolk Southern is about 2395.95% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 247.32. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.14 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 3 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.73 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally, see Norfolk Southern Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Norfolk Southern Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Norfolk Southern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norfolk Southern's future price movements. Getting to know how Norfolk Southern rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norfolk Southern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ALKAlaska Air Group(1.21) 7 per month 2.24  0.0201  3.83 (4.06)  11.57 
BCOBrinks Company 0.15 9 per month 1.88  0.0178  3.54 (2.52)  15.70 
DALDelta Air Lines 0.52 9 per month 2.30  0.06  3.47 (4.02)  13.48 
FDXFedEx 0.55 9 per month 0.00 (0.09)  3.48 (3.38)  24.46 
HAHawaiian Holdings(0.02) 2 per month 0.00 (0.05)  5.18 (4.98)  16.68 
JBLUJetBlue Airways Corp 0.36 8 per month 2.79  0.0076  5.31 (4.89)  13.84 
LSTRLandstar System 1.57 6 per month 1.77  0.08  2.88 (3.51)  9.61 
UALUnited Airlines Holdings 0.06 9 per month 2.14  0.13  4.63 (3.65)  11.31 
UHALAmerco(1.24) 7 per month 1.95  0.09  5.28 (3.52)  10.88 

Norfolk Southern Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Norfolk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norfolk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norfolk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Norfolk Southern Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Norfolk Southern stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Norfolk Southern, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Norfolk Southern based on analysis of Norfolk Southern hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Norfolk Southern's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Norfolk Southern's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.780.820.970.83
Interest Coverage6.65.426.886.27

Story Coverage note for Norfolk Southern

The number of cover stories for Norfolk Southern depends on current market conditions and Norfolk Southern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norfolk Southern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norfolk Southern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Norfolk Southern Short Properties

Norfolk Southern's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norfolk Southern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norfolk Southern often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norfolk Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norfolk Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding248100000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments839000000.00
Additionally, see Norfolk Southern Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Norfolk Southern price analysis, check to measure Norfolk Southern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Norfolk Southern is operating at the current time. Most of Norfolk Southern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Norfolk Southern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Norfolk Southern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Norfolk Southern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Norfolk Southern's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norfolk Southern. If investors know Norfolk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norfolk Southern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.34
Market Capitalization
58.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.17
Return On Assets
0.0783
Return On Equity
0.24
The market value of Norfolk Southern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norfolk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norfolk Southern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norfolk Southern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norfolk Southern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norfolk Southern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norfolk Southern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Norfolk Southern value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norfolk Southern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.