Netflix Stock Future Price Prediction

NFLX
 Stock
  

USD 241.15  4.54  1.85%   

Netflix stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Netflix shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Netflix's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Netflix and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Netflix's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Netflix, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Netflix Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Netflix based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Netflix stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Netflix over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.077
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.77
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.06
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.74
Wall Street Target Price
255.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.96
Using Netflix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Netflix from the perspective of Netflix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Netflix using Netflix's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Netflix using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Netflix's stock price.
Netflix Total Assets Per Share are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Netflix reported Total Assets Per Share of 100.42 in 2021. Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 0.95 in 2022, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to drop 33.06 in 2022.

Netflix Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Netflix's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Netflix. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Netflix stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Netflix may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Netflix and may potentially protect profits, hedge Netflix with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
374.44
Short Percent
0.0248
Short Ratio
0.84
Shares Short Prior Month
13.2 M
50 Day MA
200.91
Shares Short
10.9 M

Netflix Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Netflix's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Netflix. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Netflix can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Netflix. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Netflix's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Netflix.

Netflix Implied Volatility

    
  52.45  
Netflix's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Netflix stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Netflix's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Netflix stock will not fluctuate a lot when Netflix's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Netflix. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Netflix to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Netflix because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Netflix after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 239.43  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Netflix contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Netflix will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.28% per day over the life of the 2022-08-19 option contract. With Netflix trading at $241.15, that is roughly $7.9. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Netflix's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Netflix options at the current volatility level of 52.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Netflix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Netflix in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
216.29355.07358.44
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
340.00668.091,154
Details
Earnings
Estimates (16)
LowProjected EPSHigh
10.5310.7010.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Netflix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Netflix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Netflix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Netflix.

Netflix After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Netflix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Netflix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Netflix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Netflix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Netflix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Netflix's historical news coverage. Netflix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 236.06 and 242.80, respectively. We have considered Netflix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 241.15
236.06
Downside
239.43
After-hype Price
242.80
Upside
Netflix is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Netflix is based on 3 months time horizon.

Netflix Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Netflix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Netflix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Netflix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.50  3.38  4.80   0.23  8 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
241.15239.430.37 
35.21  

Netflix Hype Timeline

Netflix is now traded for 241.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 4.8 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Netflix is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 239.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 35.21%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.37% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Netflix is about 731.25% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 241.38. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.61. Netflix recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.55. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 7:1 split on the 15th of July 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally, see Netflix Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Netflix Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Netflix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Netflix's future price movements. Getting to know how Netflix rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Netflix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ATAIAtai Life Sciences 0.27 5 per month 4.15  0.12  8.15 (7.86)  20.29 
BBBYBed Bath Beyond(0.24) 8 per month 6.67  0.15  23.55 (9.94)  54.03 
COSTCostco Wholesale(3.08) 9 per month 2.62  0.0446  3.68 (2.39)  14.73 
ECLEcolab Inc 3.84 8 per month 1.80  0.0306  4.01 (3.35)  10.05 
HDHome Depot 1.21 9 per month 1.72  0.05  2.75 (2.60)  7.58 
DISWalt Disney(0.71) 8 per month 1.76  0.08  3.98 (3.76)  7.34 
MMM3M Company(1.10) 8 per month 1.34 (0.06)  2.50 (2.13)  6.29 
KOCoca-Cola(0.95) 4 per month 1.66 (0.06)  1.87 (1.96)  8.84 
CVXChevron Corp 4.92 8 per month 0.00 (0.07)  3.06 (4.35)  11.62 

Netflix Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Netflix price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Netflix using various technical indicators. When you analyze Netflix charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Netflix Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Netflix stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Netflix, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Netflix based on analysis of Netflix hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Netflix's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Netflix's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.951.430.930.95
Interest Coverage4.83.3117.4818.86

Story Coverage note for Netflix

The number of cover stories for Netflix depends on current market conditions and Netflix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Netflix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Netflix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Netflix Short Properties

Netflix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Netflix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Netflix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Netflix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Netflix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.44%
Short Percent Of Float2.48%
Float Shares438.61M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.2M
Shares Short Prior Month12.55M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month10.18M
Date Short Interest29th of July 2022
Additionally, see Netflix Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Netflix information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Netflix's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for Netflix Stock analysis

When running Netflix price analysis, check to measure Netflix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Netflix is operating at the current time. Most of Netflix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Netflix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Netflix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Netflix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Netflix's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Netflix. If investors know Netflix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Netflix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.077
Market Capitalization
110.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.086
Return On Assets
0.085
Return On Equity
0.31
The market value of Netflix is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Netflix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Netflix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Netflix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Netflix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Netflix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Netflix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Netflix value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Netflix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.