Norwegian Stock Future Price Prediction

NCLH
 Stock
  

USD 11.33  0.21  1.89%   

Norwegian Cruise Ord stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Norwegian Cruise shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Norwegian Cruise's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Norwegian Cruise's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Norwegian Cruise Ord, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Norwegian Cruise Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Norwegian Cruise based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Norwegian stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Norwegian Cruise over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.009
EPS Estimate Current Year
-2.19
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.7
Wall Street Target Price
21.44
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
-1.53
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
167.37
Using Norwegian Cruise hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norwegian Cruise Ord from the perspective of Norwegian Cruise response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Norwegian Cruise using Norwegian Cruise's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Norwegian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Norwegian Cruise's stock price.

Norwegian Cruise Implied Volatility

    
  83.33  
Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Norwegian Cruise Ord stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Norwegian Cruise's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Norwegian Cruise stock will not fluctuate a lot when Norwegian Cruise's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Norwegian Cruise. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Norwegian Cruise to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Norwegian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Norwegian Cruise after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 11.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norwegian Cruise's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Norwegian Cruise in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.3515.8821.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.7812.3117.83
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
22.0030.0039.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-8.84-8.23-7.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Norwegian Cruise. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Norwegian Cruise's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Norwegian Cruise's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Norwegian Cruise Ord.

Norwegian Cruise After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Norwegian Cruise at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norwegian Cruise or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Norwegian Cruise, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Norwegian Cruise Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Norwegian Cruise's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norwegian Cruise's historical news coverage. Norwegian Cruise's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.29 and 17.35, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Cruise's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 11.33
11.82
After-hype Price
17.35
Upside
Norwegian Cruise is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norwegian Cruise Ord is based on 3 months time horizon.

Norwegian Cruise Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Norwegian Cruise is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norwegian Cruise backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norwegian Cruise, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.89  5.53  0.49   0.61  9 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.3311.824.32 
1,005  

Norwegian Cruise Hype Timeline

Norwegian Cruise Ord is now traded for 11.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.49 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.61. Norwegian is expected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 11.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 4.32% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.89%. The volatility of related hype on Norwegian Cruise is about 810.59% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 11.94. Norwegian Cruise Ord currently holds about 1.75 B in cash with (2.47 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.19. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expectedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.
Additionally, see Norwegian Cruise Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Norwegian Cruise Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Norwegian Cruise's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norwegian Cruise's future price movements. Getting to know how Norwegian Cruise rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norwegian Cruise may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MSFTMicrosoft Corp 1.73 9 per month 0.00 (0.0357)  2.97 (4.24)  9.36 
MMM3M Company 1.02 7 per month 0.00 (0.0309)  2.17 (2.52)  8.68 
CVXChevron Corp 1.60 10 per month 0.00  0.0203  3.06 (4.60)  10.25 
MRKMerck Company(0.63) 9 per month 0.99  0.28  2.16 (1.65)  7.61 
INTCIntel Corp 0.31 8 per month 0.00 (0.14)  3.14 (3.64)  10.50 
AAAlcoa Corp 1.89 9 per month 0.00 (0.18)  5.10 (6.70)  21.93 
CSCOCisco Systems(0.32) 7 per month 0.00 (0.08)  2.73 (3.26)  17.06 
HPQHp Inc 0.50 9 per month 0.00 (0.0261)  4.02 (4.48)  21.74 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp 0.04 10 per month 2.96  0.13  3.03 (3.96)  11.86 

Norwegian Cruise Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Norwegian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norwegian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norwegian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Norwegian Cruise Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Norwegian Cruise stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Norwegian Cruise Ord, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Norwegian Cruise based on analysis of Norwegian Cruise hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Norwegian Cruise's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Norwegian Cruise's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Norwegian Cruise

The number of cover stories for Norwegian Cruise depends on current market conditions and Norwegian Cruise's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norwegian Cruise is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norwegian Cruise's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Norwegian Cruise Short Properties

Norwegian Cruise's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norwegian Cruise's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norwegian Cruise Ord often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norwegian Cruise's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norwegian Cruise's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.59%
Short Percent Of Float9.67%
Float Shares414.89M
Shares Short Prior Month40.88M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day23.35M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month21.32M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Additionally, see Norwegian Cruise Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Norwegian Cruise Ord information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Norwegian Cruise's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

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Is Norwegian Cruise's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwegian Cruise. If investors know Norwegian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norwegian Cruise listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.009
Market Capitalization
4.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
167.37
Return On Assets
-0.0873
Return On Equity
-1.4
The market value of Norwegian Cruise Ord is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norwegian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norwegian Cruise's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norwegian Cruise's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norwegian Cruise's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norwegian Cruise's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norwegian Cruise's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Norwegian Cruise value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norwegian Cruise's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.