Main Street Stock Future Price Prediction

MAIN
 Stock
  

USD 38.64  0.71  1.87%   

Main Street Capital stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Main Street shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Main Street's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Main Street and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Main Street's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Main Street Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Main Street based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Main Street stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Main Street over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.39) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.77
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.2
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.61
Wall Street Target Price
41.25
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.76
Using Main Street hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Main Street Capital from the perspective of Main Street response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Main Street using Main Street's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Main Street using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Main Street's stock price.

Main Street Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Main Street's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Main Street. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Main Street stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Main Street may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Main Street and may potentially protect profits, hedge Main Street with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
39.7
Short Percent
0.0251
Short Ratio
5.62
Shares Short Prior Month
1.7 M
50 Day MA
36.27
Shares Short
1.9 M

Main Street Capital Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Main Street's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Main Street. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Main Street can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Main Street Capital. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Main Street's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Main Street.

Main Street Implied Volatility

    
  52.73  
Main Street's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Main Street Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Main Street's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Main Street stock will not fluctuate a lot when Main Street's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Main Street. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Main Street to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Main Street because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Main Street after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 38.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Main Street's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Main Street in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.7840.8642.77
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
36.9638.8740.78
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
39.0044.2548.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.562.572.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Main Street. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Main Street's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Main Street's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Main Street Capital.

Main Street After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Main Street at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Main Street or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Main Street, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Main Street Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Main Street's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Main Street's historical news coverage. Main Street's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.74 and 40.56, respectively. We have considered Main Street's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 38.64
38.65
After-hype Price
40.56
Upside
Main Street is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Main Street Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.

Main Street Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Main Street is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Main Street backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Main Street, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07  1.91  0.01   0.04  2 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
38.6438.650.03 
1,736  

Main Street Hype Timeline

Main Street Capital is now traded for 38.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Main Street is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 38.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.03% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Main Street is about 368.73% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 38.68. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 345.15 M. Net Income was 229.64 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 289.05 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Additionally, see Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Main Street Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Main Street's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Main Street's future price movements. Getting to know how Main Street rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Main Street may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Main Street Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Main Street price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Main Street using various technical indicators. When you analyze Main Street charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Main Street Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Main Street stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Main Street Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Main Street based on analysis of Main Street hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Main Street's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Main Street's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Main Street

The number of cover stories for Main Street depends on current market conditions and Main Street's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Main Street is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Main Street's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Main Street Short Properties

Main Street's future price predictability will typically decrease when Main Street's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Main Street Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Main Street's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Main Street's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date7th of November 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out2.23%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.57
Short Percent Of Float2.33%
Float Shares73.93M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day275.91k
Shares Short Prior Month1.64M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month349.76k
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022
Additionally, see Main Street Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Main Street Capital price analysis, check to measure Main Street's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Main Street is operating at the current time. Most of Main Street's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Main Street's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Main Street's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Main Street to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Main Street's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Main Street. If investors know Main Street will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Main Street listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.39) 
Market Capitalization
2.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.28
Return On Assets
0.0494
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Main Street Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Main Street that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Main Street's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Main Street's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Main Street's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Main Street's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Main Street's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Main Street value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Main Street's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.