Kaiser Stock Future Price Prediction

KALU
 Stock
  

USD 90.40  3.21  3.68%   

Kaiser Aluminum stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Kaiser Aluminum shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Kaiser Aluminum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Kaiser Aluminum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Kaiser Aluminum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Kaiser Aluminum, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see Kaiser Aluminum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Kaiser Aluminum based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Kaiser stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Kaiser Aluminum over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.39
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.37
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.78
Wall Street Target Price
81.67
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.79) 
Using Kaiser Aluminum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kaiser Aluminum from the perspective of Kaiser Aluminum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kaiser Aluminum using Kaiser Aluminum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kaiser using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kaiser Aluminum's stock price.
Kaiser Aluminum Return on Investment is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Kaiser Aluminum reported Return on Investment of 3.90 in 2021. Cash Flow Per Share is likely to gain to 6.01 in 2022, whereas Revenue to Assets are likely to drop 0.95 in 2022.

Kaiser Aluminum Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Kaiser Aluminum's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Kaiser. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Kaiser Aluminum stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Kaiser Aluminum may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kaiser Aluminum and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kaiser Aluminum with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
84.71
Short Percent
0.0588
Short Ratio
5.03
Shares Short Prior Month
727.1 K
50 Day MA
76.36
Shares Short
662.4 K

Kaiser Aluminum Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Kaiser Aluminum's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Kaiser. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kaiser can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kaiser Aluminum. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kaiser Aluminum's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kaiser Aluminum.

Kaiser Aluminum Implied Volatility

    
  109.63  
Kaiser Aluminum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kaiser Aluminum stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kaiser Aluminum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kaiser Aluminum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kaiser Aluminum's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Kaiser Aluminum. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Kaiser Aluminum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Kaiser because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Kaiser Aluminum after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 91.27  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kaiser contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kaiser Aluminum will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.85% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Kaiser Aluminum trading at $90.4, that is roughly $6.19. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kaiser Aluminum's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kaiser Aluminum options at the current volatility level of 109.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaiser Aluminum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kaiser Aluminum in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
81.36104.52107.83
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
98.00119.00140.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.962.962.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kaiser Aluminum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kaiser Aluminum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kaiser Aluminum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kaiser Aluminum.

Kaiser Aluminum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Kaiser Aluminum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kaiser Aluminum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kaiser Aluminum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Kaiser Aluminum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Kaiser Aluminum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kaiser Aluminum's historical news coverage. Kaiser Aluminum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.96 and 94.58, respectively. We have considered Kaiser Aluminum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 90.40
91.27
After-hype Price
94.58
Upside
Kaiser Aluminum is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kaiser Aluminum is based on 3 months time horizon.

Kaiser Aluminum Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Kaiser Aluminum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kaiser Aluminum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kaiser Aluminum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.49  3.79  0.76   0.46  2 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
90.4091.270.96 
242.95  

Kaiser Aluminum Hype Timeline

Kaiser Aluminum is now traded for 90.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.76 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.46. Kaiser is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 91.27 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.96% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Kaiser Aluminum is about 403.19% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 90.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 273.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days.
Please see Kaiser Aluminum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Kaiser Aluminum Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Kaiser Aluminum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kaiser Aluminum's future price movements. Getting to know how Kaiser Aluminum rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kaiser Aluminum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Kaiser Aluminum Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Kaiser price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kaiser using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kaiser charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Kaiser Aluminum Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Kaiser Aluminum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Kaiser Aluminum, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Kaiser Aluminum based on analysis of Kaiser Aluminum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Kaiser Aluminum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Kaiser Aluminum's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.671.141.51.61
Interest Coverage5.242.011.311.34

Story Coverage note for Kaiser Aluminum

The number of cover stories for Kaiser Aluminum depends on current market conditions and Kaiser Aluminum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kaiser Aluminum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kaiser Aluminum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Kaiser Aluminum Short Properties

Kaiser Aluminum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kaiser Aluminum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kaiser Aluminum often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kaiser Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kaiser Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date24th of October 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out4.16%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.08
Short Percent Of Float5.88%
Float Shares15.62M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day88.84k
Shares Short Prior Month787.06k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month138.27k
Date Short Interest15th of November 2022
Please see Kaiser Aluminum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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Is Kaiser Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kaiser Aluminum. If investors know Kaiser will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kaiser Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
Market Capitalization
1.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.002) 
Return On Assets
0.0178
Return On Equity
(0.0022) 
The market value of Kaiser Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaiser that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaiser Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaiser Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaiser Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaiser Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaiser Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kaiser Aluminum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaiser Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.