Kellogg Stock Future Price Prediction

K
 Stock
  

USD 73.46  0.43  0.58%   

Kellogg Company stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Kellogg shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Kellogg's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Kellogg and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Kellogg's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Kellogg Company, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see Kellogg Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Kellogg based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Kellogg stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Kellogg over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.011
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.87
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.14
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.15
Wall Street Target Price
73.24
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.98
Using Kellogg hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kellogg Company from the perspective of Kellogg response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kellogg using Kellogg's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kellogg using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kellogg's stock price.
Kellogg PPandE Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of PPandE Turnover was reported at 3.77. The current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 10.45, while Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets are forecasted to increase to (10.21) .

Kellogg Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Kellogg's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Kellogg. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Kellogg stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Kellogg may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kellogg and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kellogg with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
70.3429
Short Percent
0.0408
Short Ratio
4.4
Shares Short Prior Month
11.5 M
50 Day MA
72.2222
Shares Short
11.3 M

Kellogg Company Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Kellogg's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Kellogg. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kellogg can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kellogg Company. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kellogg's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kellogg.

Kellogg Implied Volatility

    
  38.02  
Kellogg's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kellogg Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kellogg's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kellogg stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kellogg's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Kellogg. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Kellogg to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Kellogg because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Kellogg after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 73.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kellogg contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kellogg Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.38% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Kellogg trading at USD73.46, that is roughly USD1.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kellogg's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kellogg Company options at the current volatility level of 38.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kellogg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kellogg in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
69.0270.6581.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
74.9376.5678.18
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
64.0068.2276.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (9)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.084.134.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kellogg. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kellogg's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kellogg's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kellogg Company.

Kellogg After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Kellogg at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kellogg or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kellogg, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Kellogg Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Kellogg's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kellogg's historical news coverage. Kellogg's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.22 and 75.48, respectively. We have considered Kellogg's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 73.46
73.85
After-hype Price
75.48
Upside
Kellogg is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kellogg Company is based on 3 months time horizon.

Kellogg Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Kellogg is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kellogg backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kellogg, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.07  1.63   0.04    0.09  8 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
73.4673.850.05 
262.90  

Kellogg Hype Timeline

As of December 8, 2022 Kellogg Company is listed for 73.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Kellogg is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 73.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.05% whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Kellogg is about 128.14% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 73.37. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 3.0. Kellogg Company last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 25th of August 1997. Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Please see Kellogg Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Kellogg Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Kellogg's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kellogg's future price movements. Getting to know how Kellogg rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kellogg may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Kellogg Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Kellogg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kellogg using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kellogg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Kellogg Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Kellogg stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Kellogg Company, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Kellogg based on analysis of Kellogg hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Kellogg's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Kellogg's related companies.
 2012 2016 2017 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.683.513.542.75
Interest Coverage7.863.447.68.14

Story Coverage note for Kellogg

The number of cover stories for Kellogg depends on current market conditions and Kellogg's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kellogg is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kellogg's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Kellogg Short Properties

Kellogg's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kellogg's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kellogg Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kellogg's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kellogg's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding343648961.00
Cash And Short Term Investments286000000.00
Please see Kellogg Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Kellogg Company price analysis, check to measure Kellogg's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kellogg is operating at the current time. Most of Kellogg's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kellogg's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kellogg's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kellogg to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kellogg's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kellogg. If investors know Kellogg will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kellogg listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.011
Market Capitalization
25.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.089
Return On Assets
0.0658
Return On Equity
0.3421
The market value of Kellogg Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kellogg that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kellogg's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kellogg's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kellogg's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kellogg's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kellogg's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kellogg value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kellogg's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.