Grocery Stock Future Price Prediction

GO
 Stock
  

USD 33.37  0.89  2.60%   

Grocery Outlet Holding stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Grocery Outlet shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Grocery Outlet's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Grocery Outlet and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Grocery Outlet's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Grocery Outlet Holding, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Grocery Outlet based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Grocery stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Grocery Outlet over a specific investment horizon.Using Grocery Outlet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grocery Outlet Holding from the perspective of Grocery Outlet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grocery Outlet using Grocery Outlet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grocery using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grocery Outlet's stock price.

Grocery Outlet Implied Volatility

    
  76.33  
Grocery Outlet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grocery Outlet Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grocery Outlet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grocery Outlet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grocery Outlet's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Grocery Outlet. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Grocery Outlet to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Grocery because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Grocery Outlet after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 33.48  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grocery contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grocery Outlet Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.77% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Grocery Outlet trading at $33.37, that is roughly $1.59. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grocery Outlet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grocery Outlet Holding options at the current volatility level of 76.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grocery Outlet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Grocery Outlet in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.7030.6336.71
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
31.4233.3535.28
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
26.0030.2242.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
33.1938.7241.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grocery Outlet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grocery Outlet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grocery Outlet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Grocery Outlet Holding.

Grocery Outlet After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Grocery Outlet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grocery Outlet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grocery Outlet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Grocery Outlet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Grocery Outlet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grocery Outlet's historical news coverage. Grocery Outlet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.55 and 35.41, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 33.37
33.48
After-hype Price
35.41
Upside
Grocery Outlet is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grocery Outlet Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.

Grocery Outlet Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Grocery Outlet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grocery Outlet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grocery Outlet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.38  1.95  0.11   0.00  10 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
33.3733.480.33 
650.00  

Grocery Outlet Hype Timeline

As of September 28, 2022 Grocery Outlet Holding is listed for 33.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Grocery is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 33.48 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 0.33% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.38%. The volatility of related hype on Grocery Outlet is about 19500.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 33.37. The company generated the yearly revenue of 3.16 B. Reported Net Income was 54.99 M with gross profit of 948.79 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days.
Please check Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Grocery Outlet Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Grocery Outlet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grocery Outlet's future price movements. Getting to know how Grocery Outlet rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grocery Outlet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CLWClearwater Paper Corp 0.01 6 per month 1.53  0.10  3.15 (3.05)  22.44 

Grocery Outlet Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Grocery price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grocery using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grocery charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Grocery Outlet Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Grocery Outlet stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Grocery Outlet Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Grocery Outlet based on analysis of Grocery Outlet hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Grocery Outlet's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Grocery Outlet's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Grocery Outlet

The number of cover stories for Grocery Outlet depends on current market conditions and Grocery Outlet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grocery Outlet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grocery Outlet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Grocery Outlet Short Properties

Grocery Outlet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grocery Outlet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grocery Outlet Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grocery Outlet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grocery Outlet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.77%
Short Percent Of Float9.69%
Float Shares88.15M
Shares Short Prior Month8.11M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.14M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.13M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please check Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Grocery Outlet Holding price analysis, check to measure Grocery Outlet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grocery Outlet is operating at the current time. Most of Grocery Outlet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grocery Outlet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grocery Outlet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grocery Outlet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Grocery Outlet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. If investors know Grocery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grocery Outlet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Grocery Outlet Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grocery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grocery Outlet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grocery Outlet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grocery Outlet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grocery Outlet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Grocery Outlet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grocery Outlet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.