Genius Stock Future Price Prediction

GENI
 Stock
  

USD 2.43  0.19  7.25%   

Genius Sports stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Genius Sports shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Genius Sports' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Genius Sports and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Genius Sports' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Genius Sports, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Genius Sports based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Genius stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Genius Sports over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Current Year
-0.51
EPS Estimate Next Year
-0.35
Wall Street Target Price
8.22
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
-0.15
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.6
Using Genius Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genius Sports from the perspective of Genius Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Genius Sports using Genius Sports' options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Genius using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Genius Sports' stock price.

Genius Sports Implied Volatility

    
  158.12  
Genius Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genius Sports stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genius Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genius Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genius Sports' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Genius Sports. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Genius Sports to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Genius because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Genius Sports after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 2.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genius Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Genius Sports in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.916.7512.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0462662.318.15
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
13.0019.4325.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.97-0.97-0.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genius Sports. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genius Sports' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genius Sports' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Genius Sports.

Genius Sports After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Genius Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genius Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Genius Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Genius Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Genius Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genius Sports' historical news coverage. Genius Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered Genius Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 2.43
2.39
After-hype Price
8.23
Upside
Genius Sports is relatively risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genius Sports is based on 1 month time horizon.

Genius Sports Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Genius Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genius Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genius Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.54  6.45  0.04    0.60  1 Events / Month9 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.432.395.53 
9,214  

Genius Sports Hype Timeline

Genius Sports is currently traded for 2.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.6. Genius is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 2.39. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -5.53% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.54%. The volatility of related hype on Genius Sports is about 582.13% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 1.83. About 46.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Genius Sports recorded a loss per share of 10.61. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimatedpress releasewill be very soon.
Please check Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Genius Sports Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Genius Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genius Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Genius Sports rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genius Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EVEREverquote Inc Cl(0.32) 1 per month 5.24  0.06  8.33 (8.34)  15.26 
AXPAmerican Express(1.59) 7 per month 0.00 (0.16)  3.18 (5.26)  8.52 
VZVerizon Communications 0.99 9 per month 0.00  0.15  2.56 (2.17)  5.47 
HDHome Depot(9.61) 9 per month 0.00 (0.13)  2.75 (3.54)  6.46 
MRKMerck Company(1.37) 8 per month 1.41  0.16  3.19 (2.50)  3.33 
CATCaterpillar 0.29 8 per month 0.00 (0.13)  1.95 (4.88)  7.39 
XOMExxon Mobil Corp 0.38 8 per month 0.00  0.0085  4.58 (4.59)  10.35 
KOCoca-Cola(0.23) 8 per month 0.00  0.10  1.87 (2.01)  3.78 
INTCIntel Corp(0.19) 8 per month 0.00 (0.17)  2.46 (3.60)  7.74 
GEGeneral Electric 0.57 10 per month 0.00 (0.19)  2.28 (4.93)  7.80 

Genius Sports Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Genius price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genius using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genius charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Genius Sports Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Genius Sports stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Genius Sports, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Genius Sports based on analysis of Genius Sports hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Genius Sports's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Genius Sports's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Genius Sports

The number of cover stories for Genius Sports depends on current market conditions and Genius Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genius Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genius Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Genius Sports Short Properties

Genius Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Genius Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Genius Sports often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Genius Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genius Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.17%
Short Percent Of Float6.04%
Float Shares72.95M
Shares Short Prior Month5.38M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Please check Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Genius Sports information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Genius Sports' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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When running Genius Sports price analysis, check to measure Genius Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genius Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Genius Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genius Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genius Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genius Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genius Sports' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genius Sports. If investors know Genius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genius Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
528.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.6
Return On Assets
-0.62
Return On Equity
-1.4
The market value of Genius Sports is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genius Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genius Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genius Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genius Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genius Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Genius Sports value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genius Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.