FIRST Stock Future Price Prediction

FRC
 Stock
  

USD 147.38  3.18  2.21%   

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of FIRST REPUBLIC shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of FIRST REPUBLIC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of FIRST REPUBLIC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from FIRST REPUBLIC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check FIRST REPUBLIC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of FIRST REPUBLIC based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The FIRST stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on FIRST REPUBLIC over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.53
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.75
Wall Street Target Price
188.88
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Using FIRST REPUBLIC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK from the perspective of FIRST REPUBLIC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FIRST REPUBLIC using FIRST REPUBLIC's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FIRST using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FIRST REPUBLIC's stock price.
FIRST REPUBLIC Calculated Tax Rate is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 19.15. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 0.60, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 11.40.

FIRST REPUBLIC Implied Volatility

    
  41.8  
FIRST REPUBLIC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FIRST REPUBLIC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FIRST REPUBLIC stock will not fluctuate a lot when FIRST REPUBLIC's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in FIRST REPUBLIC. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in FIRST REPUBLIC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying FIRST because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

FIRST REPUBLIC after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 146.72  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of FIRST REPUBLIC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of FIRST REPUBLIC in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
131.67186.57188.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
153.13155.38157.63
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
174.00224.87255.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (9)
LowProjected EPSHigh
7.908.138.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FIRST REPUBLIC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FIRST REPUBLIC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FIRST REPUBLIC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in FIRST REPUBLIC BANK.

FIRST REPUBLIC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of FIRST REPUBLIC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FIRST REPUBLIC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of FIRST REPUBLIC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

FIRST REPUBLIC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting FIRST REPUBLIC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FIRST REPUBLIC's historical news coverage. FIRST REPUBLIC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 144.47 and 148.97, respectively. We have considered FIRST REPUBLIC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 147.38
144.47
Downside
146.72
After-hype Price
148.97
Upside
FIRST REPUBLIC is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK is based on 3 months time horizon.

FIRST REPUBLIC Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as FIRST REPUBLIC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FIRST REPUBLIC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FIRST REPUBLIC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12  2.27  0.36    0.16  1 Events / Month8 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
147.38146.720.29 
76.17  

FIRST REPUBLIC Hype Timeline

On the 1st of July FIRST REPUBLIC BANK is traded for 147.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.36 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. FIRST is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 146.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 76.17%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.29% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on FIRST REPUBLIC is about 173.14% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 147.22. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.21 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.43 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.97 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projectedpress releasewill be very soon.
Please check FIRST REPUBLIC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

FIRST REPUBLIC Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to FIRST REPUBLIC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FIRST REPUBLIC's future price movements. Getting to know how FIRST REPUBLIC rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FIRST REPUBLIC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WFCWells Fargo(0.06) 7 per month 0.00 (0.09)  3.55 (4.00)  11.23 
MREOMereo Biopharma Group(0.05) 4 per month 9.02  0.05  14.55 (17.04)  76.70 
IBMInternational Business Machines 0.70 8 per month 1.44  0.19  2.47 (2.47)  11.05 
AXPAmerican Express(2.19) 8 per month 0.00 (0.11)  3.46 (3.99)  9.75 
WMTWalmart(1.80) 7 per month 0.00 (0.0309)  2.43 (2.47)  13.98 
AAAlcoa Corp 0.23 9 per month 0.00 (0.19)  5.10 (6.70)  21.93 
KOCoca-Cola(4.66) 9 per month 1.75  0.16  1.87 (2.01)  10.05 
MMM3M Company(3.71) 9 per month 0.00 (0.0055)  2.17 (2.52)  8.68 
VZVerizon Communications(0.26) 11 per month 1.68  0.13  2.30 (2.42)  7.94 

FIRST REPUBLIC Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FIRST price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FIRST using various technical indicators. When you analyze FIRST charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About FIRST REPUBLIC Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of FIRST REPUBLIC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of FIRST REPUBLIC based on analysis of FIRST REPUBLIC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to FIRST REPUBLIC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to FIRST REPUBLIC's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover12.3711.4
Calculated Tax Rate19.1525.43

Story Coverage note for FIRST REPUBLIC

The number of cover stories for FIRST REPUBLIC depends on current market conditions and FIRST REPUBLIC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FIRST REPUBLIC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FIRST REPUBLIC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

FIRST REPUBLIC Short Properties

FIRST REPUBLIC's future price predictability will typically decrease when FIRST REPUBLIC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FIRST REPUBLIC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FIRST REPUBLIC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.16%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.86
Short Percent Of Float1.17%
Float Shares178.71M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.28M
Shares Short Prior Month2.02M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.23M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.60%
Please check FIRST REPUBLIC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the FIRST REPUBLIC BANK information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FIRST REPUBLIC's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for FIRST Stock analysis

When running FIRST REPUBLIC BANK price analysis, check to measure FIRST REPUBLIC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FIRST REPUBLIC is operating at the current time. Most of FIRST REPUBLIC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FIRST REPUBLIC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FIRST REPUBLIC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FIRST REPUBLIC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FIRST REPUBLIC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FIRST REPUBLIC. If investors know FIRST will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FIRST REPUBLIC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.12
Market Capitalization
26.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Return On Assets
0.009
Return On Equity
0.11
The market value of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FIRST that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FIRST REPUBLIC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FIRST REPUBLIC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FIRST REPUBLIC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FIRST REPUBLIC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FIRST REPUBLIC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine FIRST REPUBLIC value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FIRST REPUBLIC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.