Fedex Stock Future Price Prediction

FDX
 Stock
  

USD 176.70  0.34  0.19%   

Fedex Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Fedex Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Fedex Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fedex Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fedex Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fedex Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Fedex Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Fedex Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Fedex stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fedex Corp over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.19) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
20.59
EPS Estimate Next Year
22.41
Wall Street Target Price
191.75
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
5.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.056
Using Fedex Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fedex Corp from the perspective of Fedex Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fedex Corp using Fedex Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fedex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fedex Corp's stock price.
Fedex Corp Total Assets Per Share are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Fedex Corp reported Total Assets Per Share of 330.94 in 2021. Quick Ratio is likely to rise to 1.51 in 2022, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is likely to drop 0.68 in 2022.

Fedex Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Fedex Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Fedex. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Fedex Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Fedex Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fedex Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fedex Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
204.31
Short Percent
0.0328
Short Ratio
1.93
Shares Short Prior Month
4.7 M
50 Day MA
159.65
Shares Short
7.9 M

Fedex Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Fedex Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Fedex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fedex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fedex Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fedex Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fedex Corp.

Fedex Corp Implied Volatility

    
  22.11  
Fedex Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fedex Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fedex Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fedex Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fedex Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Fedex Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fedex Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fedex because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Fedex Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 176.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fedex contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fedex Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.38% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Fedex Corp trading at $176.7, that is roughly $2.44. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fedex Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fedex Corp options at the current volatility level of 22.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fedex Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fedex Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
159.03212.98216.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
186.72190.10193.48
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
260.00321.07380.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (10)
LowProjected EPSHigh
20.1020.8221.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fedex Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fedex Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fedex Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fedex Corp.

Fedex Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fedex Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fedex Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fedex Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fedex Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fedex Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fedex Corp's historical news coverage. Fedex Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 173.02 and 179.78, respectively. We have considered Fedex Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 176.70
173.02
Downside
176.40
After-hype Price
179.78
Upside
Fedex Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fedex Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fedex Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Fedex Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fedex Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fedex Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25  3.41   0.30   0.22  9 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
176.70176.400.17 
281.82  

Fedex Corp Hype Timeline

On the 26th of November Fedex Corp is traded for 176.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.22. Fedex is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 176.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.17% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Fedex Corp is about 389.71% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 176.92. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Fedex Corp was currently reported as 82.84. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.17. Fedex Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.36. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of September 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 7th of May 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Please check Fedex Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fedex Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fedex Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fedex Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Fedex Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fedex Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Fedex Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fedex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fedex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fedex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Fedex Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Fedex Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fedex Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fedex Corp based on analysis of Fedex Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fedex Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fedex Corp's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity1.20.860.810.68
Interest Coverage3.927.99.8210.08

Story Coverage note for Fedex Corp

The number of cover stories for Fedex Corp depends on current market conditions and Fedex Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fedex Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fedex Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Fedex Corp Short Properties

Fedex Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fedex Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fedex Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fedex Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fedex Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.37%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.60
Short Percent Of Float3.65%
Float Shares239.82M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.69M
Shares Short Prior Month3.61M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.02M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.48%
Please check Fedex Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fedex Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fedex Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Fedex Corp price analysis, check to measure Fedex Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fedex Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Fedex Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fedex Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fedex Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fedex Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fedex Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fedex Corp. If investors know Fedex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fedex Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.19) 
Market Capitalization
45.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.056
Return On Assets
0.0421
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Fedex Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fedex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fedex Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fedex Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fedex Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fedex Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fedex Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fedex Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fedex Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.