Fastenal Stock Future Price Prediction

FAST -  USA Stock  

USD 60.13  0.47  0.79%

Fastenal stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Fastenal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Fastenal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fastenal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fastenal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fastenal Company, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Fastenal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fastenal Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Fastenal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Fastenal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fastenal over a specific investment horizon. Using Fastenal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fastenal Company from the perspective of Fastenal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fastenal using Fastenal's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fastenal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fastenal's stock price.
Fastenal Return on Investment is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Fastenal reported Return on Investment of 37.09 in 2020. Cash Flow Per Share is likely to gain to 2.07 in 2021, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 1.39 in 2021.

Fastenal Implied Volatility

    
  21.25  
Fastenal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fastenal Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fastenal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fastenal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fastenal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Fastenal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fastenal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fastenal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Fastenal after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 60.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastenal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fastenal in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.9060.0461.18
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
57.5258.6659.80
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0052.1465.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (9)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.541.561.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fastenal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fastenal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fastenal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fastenal.

Fastenal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fastenal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fastenal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Fastenal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Fastenal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fastenal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fastenal's historical news coverage. Fastenal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.86 and 61.14, respectively. We have considered Fastenal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
60.13
3rd of December 2021
60.00
After-hype Price
61.14
Upside
Fastenal is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fastenal is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fastenal Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Fastenal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fastenal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fastenal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.18  1.14  0.15   0.02  9 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
60.1360.000.25 
132.56  

Fastenal Hype Timeline

Fastenal is currently traded for 60.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Fastenal is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 60.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 132.56%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.25% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Fastenal is about 1117.65% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 60.11. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.7 B. Net Income was 867.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.57 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.
Please check Fastenal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fastenal Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fastenal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fastenal's future price movements. Getting to know how Fastenal rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fastenal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ABC
Abc Naco 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ABIX
Abatix Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AGFY
Agrify Corp(1.01) 7 per month 0.00 (0.12)  9.83 (10.56)  33.07 
AME
American Aircarriers Support 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies(0.48) 9 per month 1.64  0.11  2.89 (2.21)  9.04 
ANIC
Anicom Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ARG
Airgas Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ASLE
Aersale Corp 0.47 7 per month 3.77  0.13  6.57 (3.14)  34.75 
ATPX
Advanced Technical Products 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AVL1
Aviall Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 

Fastenal Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fastenal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fastenal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fastenal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Fastenal Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Fastenal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fastenal Company, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fastenal based on analysis of Fastenal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fastenal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fastenal's related companies.
 2018 2019 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.220.13
Interest Coverage81.8678.22

Story Coverage note for Fastenal

The number of cover stories for Fastenal depends on current market conditions and Fastenal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fastenal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fastenal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Fastenal Short Properties

Fastenal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fastenal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fastenal Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fastenal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fastenal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.61%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.03
Short Percent Of Float2.98%
Float Shares572.56M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.98M
Shares Short Prior Month15.5M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.81M
Date Short Interest13th of August 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.73%
Please check Fastenal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fastenal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fastenal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Fastenal price analysis, check to measure Fastenal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastenal is operating at the current time. Most of Fastenal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastenal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastenal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastenal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fastenal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fastenal. If investors know Fastenal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fastenal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fastenal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fastenal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fastenal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fastenal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fastenal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fastenal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fastenal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fastenal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fastenal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.