National Stock Future Price Prediction

EYE -  USA Stock  

USD 47.99  0.79  1.62%

National Vision Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of National Vision shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of National Vision's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of National Vision and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from National Vision's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with National Vision Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to National Vision Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

National Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of National Vision based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The National stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on National Vision over a specific investment horizon. Using National Vision hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Vision Holdings from the perspective of National Vision response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Vision using National Vision's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Vision's stock price.

National Vision Implied Volatility

    
  48.67  
National Vision's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Vision Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Vision's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Vision stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Vision's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in National Vision. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National Vision to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

National Vision after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 48.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.5647.3950.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
50.1953.0255.85
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0060.2570.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.121.121.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

National Vision After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of National Vision at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Vision or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of National Vision, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

National Vision Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting National Vision's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Vision's historical news coverage. National Vision's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.94 and 51.60, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
47.99
3rd of December 2021
48.77
After-hype Price
51.60
Upside
National Vision is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Vision Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

National Vision Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as National Vision is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Vision backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Vision, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.28  2.83  0.80   0.01  10 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.9948.771.67 
99.65  

National Vision Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of December National Vision Holdings is traded for 47.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.8 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. National is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 48.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 99.65%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 1.67% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on National Vision is about 14982.35% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 48.0. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.1 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 157.1 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 918.54 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipatedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Continue to National Vision Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

National Vision Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to National Vision's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Vision's future price movements. Getting to know how National Vision rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Vision may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop(0.30) 8 per month 2.82  0.09  4.69 (5.22)  12.64 
BBBY
Bed Bath Beyond 0.22 6 per month 0.00 (0.09)  8.83 (6.77)  26.57 
BQ
Boqii Holding(0.14) 4 per month 0.00 (0.19)  8.93 (8.00)  21.18 
DKS
Dicks Sporting Goods 1.93 9 per month 0.00 (0.08)  3.87 (4.34)  11.21 
LE
Lands End(1.00) 9 per month 0.00 (0.21)  4.35 (7.90)  13.94 
ELA
Envela Corp(0.02) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0122)  3.21 (3.30)  12.19 
BGFV
Big 5 Sporting 0.98 9 per month 0.00 (0.0123)  14.59 (11.08)  35.27 
GPC
Genuine Parts(2.98) 10 per month 1.19  0.11  2.55 (1.76)  7.64 
HZO
Marinemax 1.48 9 per month 2.08  0.09  3.78 (3.29)  9.72 

National Vision Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About National Vision Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of National Vision stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National Vision Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Vision based on analysis of National Vision hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National Vision's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National Vision's related companies.
 2010 2016 2021 (projected)
Book Value per Share6.97.159.69
Asset Turnover0.750.80.82

Story Coverage note for National Vision

The number of cover stories for National Vision depends on current market conditions and National Vision's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Vision is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Vision's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

National Vision Short Properties

National Vision's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Vision's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Vision Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Vision's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Vision's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.79%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.98
Short Percent Of Float7.84%
Float Shares76.71M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.14M
Shares Short Prior Month6.47M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month691.93k
Date Short Interest15th of November 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield6.05%
Continue to National Vision Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.