Essent Stock Future Price Prediction


USD 40.09  0.50  1.26%   

Essent Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Essent shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Essent's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Essent and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Essent's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Essent Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Essent Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Essent based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Essent stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Essent over a specific investment horizon.Using Essent hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Essent Group from the perspective of Essent response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Essent. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Essent to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Essent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Essent after-hype prediction price

  USD 40.09  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Essent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Essent in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
5 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Essent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Essent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Essent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Essent Group.

Essent After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Essent at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Essent or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Essent, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Essent Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Essent's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Essent's historical news coverage. Essent's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.97 and 42.21, respectively. We have considered Essent's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 40.09
After-hype Price
Essent is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Essent Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Essent Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Essent is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Essent backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Essent, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.08  2.12  0.00    0.01  0 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Essent Hype Timeline

Essent Group is currently traded for 40.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Essent estimated not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of insignificant. The immediate return on the next newsis estimated to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Essent is about 1967.01%. The volatility of related hype on Essent is about 1967.01% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 40.08. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.99. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Essent Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.84. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.99. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in a few days.
Continue to Essent Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Essent Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Essent's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Essent's future price movements. Getting to know how Essent rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Essent may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
At Risk
AIZAssurant(2.68) 5 per month 0.00 (0.17)  2.83 (3.34)  14.06 
AMBCAmbac Financial Group 0.84 2 per month 2.27  0.0205  4.05 (4.05)  20.29 
AMSFAMERISAFE(0.99) 17 per month 1.90  0.05  2.92 (3.16)  17.82 
EIGEmployers Holdings 1.71 8 per month 1.33  0.08  2.76 (2.59)  13.34 
FAFFirst American 0.24 5 per month 2.14 (0.0273)  3.93 (3.35)  12.49 
FNFFidelity National Financial(0.75) 5 per month 2.36 (0.0299)  4.15 (3.74)  10.62 
MBIMBIA Inc(0.10) 4 per month 3.08  0.0114  5.04 (4.82)  20.15 
NMIHNMI Holdings 0.76 3 per month 1.88 (0.0388)  3.13 (3.05)  9.56 
PMIRThe PMI Group 0.00 4 per month 0.00  0.06  0.00  0.00  4.85 

Essent Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Essent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Essent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Essent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Essent Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Essent stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Essent Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Essent based on analysis of Essent hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Essent's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Essent's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Essent

The number of cover stories for Essent depends on current market conditions and Essent's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Essent is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Essent's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Essent Short Properties

Essent's future price predictability will typically decrease when Essent's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Essent Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Essent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding111555000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments5044378000.00
Continue to Essent Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Essent Group price analysis, check to measure Essent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essent is operating at the current time. Most of Essent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Essent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Essent. If investors know Essent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Essent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Essent Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Essent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Essent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Essent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Essent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Essent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Essent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Essent value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Essent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.